With polls forecasting defeat, a beleaguered Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon warned party members that if they vote against his Gaza pullout plan, they may vote themselves out of power.
Sharon stopped short of saying he would resign if he lost, but said on Thursday he considered the referendum a personal vote of confidence. He portrayed his opponents in Likud as extremists who use "lies, obscene language and deceitful propaganda" in their campaign.
Sharon spoke after polls reflected a dramatic flip-flop among the 193,000 eligible Likud voters just three days before tomorrow's referendum. In recent weeks, supporters of the plan had maintained an edge of several percentage points, but three polls published on Thursday indicated a clear advantage for the opponents.
PHOTO: AP
The referendum marks the first time a vote is to be held in Israel on an issue that has divided the nation for decades: whether to give up land captured in the 1967 Middle East War. Under the plan, Sharon would withdraw troops and 7,500 settlers in the Gaza Strip and evacuate four small settlements in the West Bank.
Palestinians suspect Sharon is giving up Gaza to tighten his hold on much of the West Bank, and Sharon's critics in Israel believe he proposed the plan in part to deflect attention from two corruption probes against him.
Yet the withdrawal proposal also marks a drastic departure from Sharon's former views. For decades, as foremost champion of settlement expansion, he often placed new Israeli enclaves where they would most effectively break up contiguity of Palestinian areas.
In recent weeks, he has increasingly attacked his former core constituents. The settlers, he told the Maariv daily on Thursday, represent a minority in Israel and must not be allowed to impose their will on the country.
A no vote was a vote against the prime minister, he told Israel Radio. "You can't be for me, but be against my plan," he said, addressing Likud members. Painting a gloomy picture, he said a defeat of his plan would sour relations with the US and deal a serious blow to the Israeli economy.
Despite such warnings, polls published on Thursday indicated a sudden shift, with opponents taking the lead.
A poll published yesterday in the Yediot Ahronot daily said 47 percent of Likud members would vote against the plan, compared to 40.5 percent in favor. The survey showed a slight rise in support, from 39 percent a day earlier, but the level of opposition was unchanged. The poll said 12.5 percent of respondents were undecided.
Just two weeks ago, a similar poll by the same research company, Dahaf, found 54 percent in favor and 32 against. Yesterday's poll questioned 804 respondents.
It remains unclear whether Sharon will take the plan to his Cabinet and parliament for approval, even if he loses the referendum. He initially said he would be bound by the Likud vote, but has backtracked in recent days.
Sharon on Thursday raised the possibility of calling new elections if he loses. Another option is to reshuffle his Cabinet by bringing in the moderate Labor Party, a strong supporter of the plan.
Opponents have been running a tight campaign, with thousands of volunteers calling Likud members on the phone or visiting them at home. Their campaign has focused on the cost of uprooting people from homes and also accused Sharon of caving in to terrorism.
Eran Sternberg, a spokesman for the Gaza settlers, said activists had visited more than half the 193,000 Likud members and will continue such meetings until tomorrow.
"We have a very good feeling about the campaign," he said. "We think we're going to win."
Opponents received a boost on Thursday from 300 rabbis with ultranationalist views, who urged Likud members to vote against the plan. The rabbis said in a letter that a pullback violates religious precepts and endangers lives.
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