Taiwan might be the largest foreign policy challenge that the US faces over the next decade in its relationship with China, a US expert told a conference this week.
Washington should place “great importance” on getting its Taiwan policy right, former member of the US National Security Council Michael Green said.
Now a senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Green said the US needs to “think hard” about the presidential election next year, “not so much for the outcome, but for what the next president should focus on.”
He said that the US has a core interest in Taiwan’s success as a democracy — “the ability of the people of Taiwan to advance their democratic process without coercion and intimidation from Beijing.”
Green said that another core interest centered on Taiwan’s place “right in the middle” of the First Island Chain.
“One of the most problematic manifestations of Beijing’s power is what is happening in the maritime security domain and the degree to which Beijing has demonstrated a readiness and a capacity to use military, economic and diplomatic informational tools to intimidate claimants to territories and waters in the First and Second Island chains,” he said.
The US used to think of Taiwan in the context of cross-strait security, but the nature of the problem has changed, he said.
“Increasingly you have to think about the security of the whole First Island Chain, that stretches from Japan through the Taiwan Strait and Philippines,” he told the CSIS conference on “Taiwan’s 2016 Elections and the US.”
Taiwan’s defensive abilities matter, and should matter more in this broader context, Green said.
He said that a third core interest was the economic integrity and growth of Taiwan.
It counted on a robust cross-strait relationship and the integration of the economy into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, Green said.
“I do not think the next president of the US is going to change the core canonical interests on China policy or on the ‘status quo,’” he said.
Green said there were three things the next president should not do in dealing with the US.
First, no surprises.
“That means constant dialogue,” he said.
Second, no changes in the “status quo,” and third, no free-riding, Green said.
He said that to promote a more robust trust and understanding, all presidential candidates should think about the defense budget, “which has never come close enough” to the 3 percent promised by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
He said that the “beef market and other matters” had become a shackle around Taiwan’s ankles and should be settled to pave the way for entry into the TPP.
Green also had three recommendations for the White House.
First, no taking sides in the election campaign.
Second, no pressuring candidates to take positions that are not politically realistic.
“I do not think the US government should pressure [DPP presidential candidate] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to accept the [so-called] ‘1992 consensus,’” he said.
And third, there should be no violation of the “six assurances” in talking about Taiwan’s election with Beijing.
“No promises to Beijing that are not entirely consistent with our policy and the six assurances,” he said.
Green said that it was “highly unlikely” US policy toward Taiwan would change much after the election.
He said that during the “very dynamic and fluid electoral process in Taipei” the US should make it clear that its commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act and the success of Taiwan’s democracy and economy was undiminished.
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