High-level officials from Taiwan and the US are to hold two days of annual top-secret defense and security talks in Washington next week.
Informed sources said that the two sides would discuss subjects such as arms sales, threat perceptions and regional security concerns.
Taiwan’s appeal for US help with its indigenous diesel-electric submarine program could also be on the agenda.
American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chairman Raymond Burghardt hinted at the talks earlier this week in a speech during which he stressed Taiwan’s importance.
Burghardt said that a central US policy was to support Taiwan’s ability to determine its own fate, free from intimidation and coercion.
However, despite Burghardt’s encouraging words, one source said that it would be best to “temper expectations” of a new arms sales package emerging from the talks.
The source said that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) state visit in September would be seen as a “calendar challenge” by US President Barack Obama’s administration.
Next week’s meeting are an annual event known as the “Monterey Talks,” after the California town where they were first held in 1997 following Chinese missile tests the previous year that had been aimed at influencing Taiwan’s first direct presidential election, but instead led to increased cross-strait tensions.
Next week will be the first time they are to be held in Washington.
The US side is usually led by a senior Pentagon official, backed by representatives from the US Department of State and the National Security Council.
Sources said that US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs David Shear was likely to head Washington’s team, but this could not be confirmed.
Chinese-language media reports earlier this week said that National Security Council Deputy Secretary-General Andrew Yang (楊念祖), a former minister of defense, is expected to lead the Taiwanese delegation, which is to include officials from the ministries of foreign affairs and national defense and the Mainland Affairs Council.
The talks are considered so sensitive that neither side officially gives notice of their taking place.
Although arms sales are sure to be discussed, Richard Fisher, a senior fellow in Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Alexandria, Virginia, told the Taipei Times that he had not heard that any new arms package would be offered.
“A new arms package would be excellent news, provided it was meaningful,” he said.
“Taiwan has repeatedly made clear its requirement for new combat aircraft and for assistance with its new indigenous submarine program,” he said.
“But looking toward the future, Taiwan is going to require significant US assistance in obtaining sufficient asymmetric capabilities before the end of this decade to deter a Chinese air-sea invasion,” he said.
China demonstrated its invasion potential recently in the South China Sea when it mobilized hundreds of inland sea self-propelled cargo barges to carry building materials to construct its seven new island bases, Fisher said.
China could potentially have thousands of these barges, which could carry four to six tanks each, Fisher said.
“The US could help Taiwan deter such a threat by developing new ‘smart’ munitions capable of taking out such ships at relatively less expense,” he said.
Fisher said that there was some risk of the Obama administration offering a weak arms package.
“This could result in Taiwan becoming a political issue in next year’s US presidential campaign,” he said.
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