China will not make a major effort to interfere in Taiwan’s next presidential election, an end-of-year analysis by a commission appointed by the US Congress predicted.
While Beijing would likely try to influence the vote in “subtle” ways, it will avoid the aggressive and threatening approach it employed in the past, the analysis said.
The US China Economic and Security Review Commission said that there is widespread popular dissatisfaction throughout Taiwan with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and with the nation’s economic performance.
It predicts that while last year’s nine-in-one elections have placed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in a strong position as next year’s presidential election campaign approaches, “other factors” will have a greater impact on the result.
According to the report, written by commission staff policy analysts Matthew Southerland and Kevin Rosier, the upcoming election will be decided by the parties’ choices for presidential candidates, their cross-strait policy platforms, the Chinese government’s response to a revitalized DPP and whether the KMT reforms itself and repairs its image.
“Although Chinese government spokespersons may criticize policy platforms with which Beijing disagrees, Beijing likely will take a measured approach to the 2016 election campaign,” the analysis said.
“The Chinese government has learned from previous Taiwan presidential elections that threatening actions and statements directed at a particular candidate and the Taiwan electorate tend not to deter enough voters from supporting the candidate, and may even mobilize voters to back the candidate,” it said.
The commission’s staff reports are widely read and respected on Capitol Hill.
The report said that faced with the prospect of the election of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in 1996, Beijing responded with missile tests near Taiwan.
Beijing also protested former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) 2000 bid with threats by then-Chinese premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基).
Lee and Chen nonetheless won their respective elections and the Chinese government took a much less heavy-handed approach to subsequent presidential elections, the analysis said.
“Given the DPP’s large margin of victory in the 2014 local elections, the Chinese government almost certainly will expand its communication with the DPP — a move it already had begun to make before the races,” the analysis said.
While there is no indication that Beijing will change its baseline policy on the status of Taiwan’s sovereignty, the commission staff said that China would interact with the DPP to ensure the trajectory of cross-strait relations does not change dramatically.
In the run-up to the next presidential election, Beijing will continue to promote cross-strait rapprochement and economic integration, “which it views as beneficial to achieving its goal of political unification with Taiwan,” Southerland and Rosier said.
The analysis suggests that Beijing could try to influence the election by applying the same subtle techniques it used in prior elections, including encouraging Taiwanese businesspeople in China, who are largely pro-KMT, to return to Taiwan to vote.
“Worried about a potential return to the presidency by the DPP, the Chinese government probably will continue its efforts to win ‘hearts and minds’ in Taiwan,” the analysis said.
“However, Beijing faces a challenge in winning over Taiwan public opinion,” it added.
The analysis said that Taiwanese voters are increasingly concerned that cross-strait economic ties will harm the economy and political autonomy.
“This growing Taiwan identity and popular concerns about cross-strait relations are likely to be key factors in Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election,” the analysis said.
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