There is no question that Taiwan will come up when US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) meet in California this week, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairman Richard Bush said.
In view of Beijing’s regular statements that Taiwan is the “most sensitive and important” issue in US-China relations, the topic will be raised at some point during meeting between the two leaders, added Bush, who is now the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute.
Obama and Xi are scheduled to meet on Friday and Saturday at the Sunnylands estate in Palm Springs for the first time since Xi assumed the Chinese presidency in March.
In an article that appeared on the think tank’s Web site on Monday, Bush said that in some bilateral meetings between China and the US, the discussion of Taiwan is “a ritualized set-piece.”
“The Chinese side stresses the importance of the issue and what it would like the United States to do” — which is to not promote de jure Taiwanese independence and to end arms sales to Taipei, he said.
The US frequently reiterates that Washington has a “one China” policy, adheres to the three communiques with China, respects the Taiwan Relations Act and has an abiding interest in the peaceful resolution of differences between Taipei and Beijing, Bush said.
“That’s all that happens when Taiwan is not a very salient issue between Beijing and Washington. And that may be all that happens at Sunnylands because Taiwan is not terribly salient between the United States and China right now,” he said.
However, Xi could try to engage the US on the issue during the meeting for several reasons, Bush said.
The main one is that progress in cross-strait relations is likely to slow over the next few years and political issues are unlikely to be discussed, something that Beijing would prefer, he added.
Beijing also fears that the Democratic Progressive Party could return to power in Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election, Bush said.
He speculated that Xi might ask Obama to express rhetorical support for unification and opposition to Taiwanese independence.
However, Washington has been focused more on finding a solution to Taiwan Strait issues than on the outcome, Bush said.
“It’s up to Beijing to convince the leaders and people of Taiwan that unification is a good idea. There is no need for the United States to help it out,” Bush wrote in the article.
He said Xi might also seek bilateral negotiations on a framework “for limiting and ultimately ending US arms sales to Taiwan.”
China’s assumption is that Taiwan will be unlikely to strike a political truce as long as it has the US’ security support, Bush said.
“But that assumption is flawed,” he added.
US security backing does enhance Taiwan’s confidence, but historical precedent indicates that Taipei is more willing to negotiate with Beijing when it is feeling confident, Bush said.
However, a Taiwan that feels weak and isolated is unlikely to negotiate at all, and certainly not on China’s terms, he said.
“In fact, the reason Taiwan is reluctant to engage with Beijing on political issues, either medium or long-term, is not US arms sales, but China’s own formula for resolving the political dispute,” Bush wrote.
EVA Airways today confirmed the death of a flight attendant on Saturday upon their return to Taiwan and said an internal investigation has been launched, as criticism mounted over a social media post accusing the airline of failing to offer sufficient employee protections. According to the post, the flight attendant complained of feeling sick on board a flight, but was unable to take sick leave or access medical care. The crew member allegedly did not receive assistance from the chief purser, who failed to heed their requests for medical attention or call an ambulance once the flight landed, the post said. As sick
A drunk woman was sexually assaulted inside a crowded concourse of Taipei Railway Station on Thursday last week before a foreign tourist notified police, leading to calls for better education on bystander intervention and review of security infrastructure. The man, surnamed Chiu (邱), was taken into custody on charges of sexual assault, taking advantage of the woman’s condition and public indecency. Police discovered that Chiu was a fugitive with prior convictions for vehicle theft. He has been taken into custody and is to complete his unserved six-month sentence, police said. On Thursday last week, Chiu was seen wearing a white
EVA Airways, one of the leading international carriers in Taiwan, yesterday said that it was investigating reports that a cabin crew manager had ignored the condition of a sick flight attendant, who died on Saturday. The airline made the statement in response to a post circulating on social media that said that the flight attendant on an outbound flight was feeling sick and notified the cabin crew manager. Although the flight attendant grew increasingly ill on the return flight, the manager did not contact Medlink — a system that connects the aircraft to doctors on the ground for treatment advice during medical
The Taichung District Court yesterday confirmed its final ruling that the marriage between teenage heir Lai (賴) and a man surnamed Hsia (夏) was legally invalid, preventing Hsia from inheriting Lai’s NT$500 million (US$16.37 million) estate. The court confirmed that Hsia chose not to appeal the civil judgement after the court handed down its ruling in June, making the decision final. In the June ruling, the court said that Lai, 18, and Hsia, 26, showed “no mutual admiration before the marriage” and that their interactions were “distant and unfamiliar.” The judge concluded that the couple lacked the “true intention of
RSS