As the nation enters the fall season, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) yesterday forecast that eight more typhoons and tropical storms could form near Taiwan between this month and November, and that one to two typhoons could hit the nation in this period.
“The latest sea surface temperature [SST] index indicates that a weak El Nino condition is expected for the fall season,” Forecast Center Director Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典) said. “Analog analyses of SST patterns suggest the weather in the fall would be warmer than normal and there would be more typhoon activity in the northwest Pacific Ocean.”
The bureau said the typhoons formed in the fall are most likely to pass through sea areas near the nation’s north coast.
Meanwhile, bureau statistics showed a total of 15 tropical storms and typhoons have been formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean as of last month, which is the highest in the past eight years. Cheng said three of those 15 typhoons had hit Taiwan, including Talim, which hit in June, and Saola and Tembin last month.
“We have seen a more active typhoon season this year compared with the last five years and we are expecting the situation to continue,” Cheng said.
He said that a weaker subtropical high and stronger southwestern winds this summer have contributed to the higher number of tropical storms
Both 1996 and 2001 were identified as weak El Nino years, Cheng said.
Thirty typhoons formed in the northwest Pacific in 1996, while 26 formed in 2001. This was higher than the climate average of 23 to 25. Statistics further showed that three typhoons hit Taiwan in 1996. The number jumped to seven in 2001.
Additional reporting by CNA