A US expert on China affairs said yesterday that he thinks President Chen Shui-bian (
Ross Terrill, a professor at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for East Asian Research, is in Taipei to attend a seminar on Northeast Asia's future political and military development. Terrill was scheduled to meet with Chen today.
Terrill said that he would suggest that Chen slow the pace of drafting and introducing a new constitution because "writing a new constitution is not as simple as giving the people a new car or a new house."
Chen has said on several occasions since his March 20 re-election that he will honor his campaign promise to write a new constitution in 2006, for implementation in 2008 through a referendum. Beijing has blasted Chen's plan and regards it as a step toward declaring Taiwan's independence -- a move that could provoke a military attack by Beijing.
If Beijing does attack Taiwan, Terrill said, it would inflict grave losses on China, a worst-case scenario that is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, he said, Taiwan must maintain its capability to defend itself.
Since Chen has pledged to be a president for all the Taiwanese people, Terrill said, he must take the well-being and opinion of all Taiwanese people into account while carrying out his reform agenda.
Terrill said that even though Taiwan needs a new constitution suitable to its present status, Beijing's leaders do not necessarily understand this need.
For China, Terrill said, changes to the Constitution would affect Beijing's theory that Taiwan is an integral part of China.
For Taiwan's long-term development, Terrill said that Chen should give priority for the moment to addressing Taiwan's social and economic development issues.
Terrill said that although Chen won re-election, he must ascertain the people's true wishes before moving toward writing a new constitution.
Terrill said that he does not think the US government will forever insist on the "one China" policy.
He said developments in Hong Kong under Beijing's rule have prompted some politicians in Washington to dislike the idea of "one China."
Terrill said the US government has consistently stressed that Taiwan's future, regardless of unification or independence, should be determined by the people of Taiwan themselves.
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