New Zealand scientists have rounded on a quasi-mystic mathematician known as the “Moonman” who claims he predicted the devastating Christchurch earthquake by studying the moon.
Ken Ring, the author of books linking the moon with weather patterns, says he accurately forecast the Feb. 22 tremor, which left about 240 people feared dead, in a Valentine’s Day tweet.
“Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days,” Ring tweeted on Feb. 14.
Photo: AFP
照片:法新社
“Short... and sharp.”
Now traumatized residents are fearful after another Ring prediction: that Christchurch — hit by two major quakes in the past six months, along with thousands of aftershocks — will suffer another big tremor in the coming days.
“I’m hoping he’s wrong, but we’re going down to our holiday house for the week just in case,” said schoolteacher Kirsty Carruthers. “It’ll help take our minds off things, and it can’t hurt to get away.”
Ring maintains the risk of another quake is high because the moon is now unusually close to the Earth, exerting a strong gravitational pull.
But scientists have scoffed at Ring’s claims, with Canterbury University tectonics expert Mark Quigley calling them “ludicrous”.
“No one has predicted the recent earthquakes in Canterbury,” Quigley said.
“Vague quotes about dates of ‘increased’ activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction.
“(This) is opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis.”
Matt Gerstenberger, of New Zealand’s Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, said: “The correlation is low enough so that a prediction based on (the moon) would be correct only a small proportion of the time, and would be wrong much more often than it is correct.”
(AFP)
紐西蘭科學家輪番駁斥一位綽號為「月球人」的外表神秘數學家,他聲稱藉著對月球的研究,預測到這次基督城毀滅性的地震。
著有月球與天氣型態之間關聯叢書的作者肯‧林說,他情人節當天在推特上,正確預測到二月二十二日造成大約兩百四十人凶多吉少的震動。
林在二月十四日的推特上寫道,「地球上可能十五日至二十五日之間發生地震,特別是十八日前後三天在基督城。」
他說,這地震是「短…且猛烈。」
林另外一個預測說,基督城在過去六個月遭受兩次大地震與伴隨上千上萬個餘震後,將會在幾天後再度遭受另一個大震動。
一位學校教師克里斯提‧卡盧瑟斯說,「我希望他是錯的,不過我們將在那一週,住到我們的度假屋,以防萬一。」
林保持他預測另一波地震是高危險性的看法,因為他說月球現正反常地靠近地球,釋出一個強大的引力拉扯。
不過科學家們對林的說法嗤之以鼻,其中坎特伯雷大學地殼構造專家馬克‧奎格利稱這些說法是「荒唐的」。
奎格利說,「沒有人有預測到最近在坎特伯雷的地震。」
他表示,「對『增加的』(地震)活動用模棱兩可的前後數天來代表發生日期,卻未包含地震強度、地點與正確的時間,不能算是預測。」
他說,「在國家有難的節骨眼,(這)是投機取巧且毫無意義的自我推銷。」
紐西蘭地質與核能科學研究所的馬特‧葛斯登伯格說,「(此說法)的關聯性極低,因為根據『月亮』的預測只能在一小部分時間是對的,而錯的時候遠超過對的。」
(法新社/翻譯:林亞蒂)
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