The government yesterday cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 1.47 percent, from the 2.32 percent it projected in November last year, as the nation’s heavy dependence on exports and a few industries grows increasingly unsustainable amid a global slowdown and ever-shifting technology trends.
Exports, which account for 60 percent of GDP, are now projected to shrink 2.78 percent this year, the second consecutive year of contraction, as demand for mobile devices slows, hurting Taiwanese firms in the global supply chain, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said in a report.
“The economy is lacking in growth momentum, though it might increase mildly this year as it did last year,” DGBAS Minister Shih Su-mei (石素梅) told a news conference.
The statistics agency also trimmed GDP growth for last year to 0.75 percent, from the 0.85 percent estimated last month, while it raised the pace of decline for last quarter from 0.28 percent to 0.52 percent.
Disappointing economic data necessitated the downward revisions and downside risks continue to loom, DGBAS statistics division head Wu Pei-hsuan (吳佩璇) said, adding that the global economy has been weaker than expected so far this year and crude oil prices have not yet stabilized.
The trends are unfavorable for world information technology spending, which might manage a mere 0.6 percent increase this year, driven mainly by software innovations rather than hardware, Wu said.
Taiwan is home to the world’s largest electronics component suppliers, providing chips, camera lenses, casings, batteries and other parts for Apple Inc’s iPhone and iPad.
The overconcentration on exports and a few industries make the nation vulnerable to a slowdown in Apple sales, DGBAS statistics division director Tsai Hung-kun (蔡鴻坤) said.
“Gone is the era when mobile devices registered rapid growth and benefitted firms in their supply chain,” Tsai said.
Exports are expected to remain in negative territory in the first half of the year and stage a humble comeback in the third quarter, with the launches of new-generation electronic devices, the statistics agency forecast.
The seasonality-driven forecast proved to be inaccurate last year due to a lack of breakthrough innovations.
Poor exports mean domestic demand will have to prop up the economy this year, with private consumption forecast to grow 1.36 percent and private investment to pick up 1.98 percent, the report said.
Semiconductor firms have bought new equipment to maintain technology leadership and airliners have made known plans to replace old fleets, Wu said.
The government is to lend a helping hand by raising public works spending by 5.05 percent, the first increase since 2000, the report said.
Consumer prices could expand only 0.69 percent this year, curbed by lingering crude oil price disruptions, the report said.
MISINFORMATION: The generated content tends to adopt China’s official stance, such as ‘Taiwan is currently governed by the Chinese central government,’ the NSB said Five China-developed artificial intelligence (AI) language models exhibit cybersecurity risks and content biases, an inspection conducted by the National Security Bureau (NSB) showed. The five AI tools are: DeepSeek, Doubao (豆包), Yiyan (文心一言), Tongyi (通義千問) and Yuanbao (騰訊元寶), the bureau said, advising people to remain vigilant to protect personal data privacy and corporate business secrets. The NSB said it, in accordance with the National Intelligence Services Act (國家情報工作法), has reviewed international cybersecurity reports and intelligence, and coordinated with the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau and the National Police Agency’s Criminal Investigation Bureau to conduct an inspection of China-made AI language
LIMITS: While China increases military pressure on Taiwan and expands its use of cognitive warfare, it is unwilling to target tech supply chains, the report said US and Taiwan military officials have warned that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could implement a blockade within “a matter of hours” and need only “minimal conversion time” prior to an attack on Taiwan, a report released on Tuesday by the US Senate’s China Economic and Security Review Commission said. “While there is no indication that China is planning an imminent attack, the United States and its allies and partners can no longer assume that a Taiwan contingency is a distant possibility for which they would have ample time to prepare,” it said. The commission made the comments in its annual
CHECKING BOUNDARIES: China wants to disrupt solidarity among democracies and test their red lines, but it is instead pushing nations to become more united, an expert said The US Department of State on Friday expressed deep concern over a Chinese public security agency’s investigation into Legislator Puma Shen (沈伯洋) for “secession.” “China’s actions threaten free speech and erode norms that have underpinned the cross-strait ‘status quo’ for decades,” a US Department of State spokesperson said. The Chongqing Municipal Public Security Bureau late last month listed Shen as “wanted” and launched an investigation into alleged “secession-related” criminal activities, including his founding of the Kuma Academy, a civil defense organization that prepares people for an invasion by China. The spokesperson said that the US was “deeply concerned” about the bureau investigating Shen
‘TROUBLEMAKER’: Most countries believe that it is China — rather than Taiwan — that is undermining regional peace and stability with its coercive tactics, the president said China should restrain itself and refrain from being a troublemaker that sabotages peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, President William Lai (賴清德) said yesterday. Lai made the remarks after China Coast Guard vessels sailed into disputed waters off the Senkaku Islands — known as the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) in Taiwan — following a remark Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made regarding Taiwan. Takaichi during a parliamentary session on Nov. 7 said that a “Taiwan contingency” involving a Chinese naval blockade could qualify as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, and trigger Tokyo’s deployment of its military for defense. Asked about the escalating tensions
RSS