Tue, Dec 09, 2003 page1

• Pan-blue allure fading, poll shows

  CATCHING UP A poll by a generally pro-pan-blue newspaper shows Chen Shui-bian's election bandwagon about to run over his opponents

  • By Chang Yun-ping / STAFF REPORTER
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  Another poll, released yesterday, showed the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential ticket featuring President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) to be neck-and-neck with the pan-blue ticket featuring Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜).

  The poll conducted by the pro-blue China Times newspaper comes in the wake of another conducted by the DPP, released last Friday, showing similar results.

  The China Times poll, conducted on Dec. 5 showed that public support for the Chen-Lu ticket was 34 percent, while that of the KMT-PFP Lien-Soong ticket stood at 36 percent. However, about 30 percent of those questioned remained undecided.

  The poll also found that after tense partisan feuding over the passage of the Referendum Law the pan-green and pan-blue camps still managed to maintain their base of support.

  Analysis of the poll indicated that both the ruling and opposition camps have mobilized their rank-and-file supporters in great intensity, especially the DPP which has conducted its mobilization with the most vigor.

  Analysis also suggested that Chen's increased support was due to his appeal to a Taiwan-centered consciousness. This was highlighted by both aa large-scale march in October organized by the pan-green camp in support of the referendum law and a new constitution as well as the battle for the referendum law in the legislature, the newspaper said.

  The same survey showed, that given the choice of identifying themselves as Taiwanese, Chinese or both Taiwanese and Chinese, the proportion of people identifying themselves as Taiwanese had risen from 37 percent in late October to 50 percent.

  Those who considered themselves both Taiwanese and Chinese had dropped from 48 percent in late October to 38 percent.

  The poll did not, however, show the figures for people identifying themselves as Chinese.

  Chen's campaign was in buoyant mood after the release of the poll.

  DPP Deputy Secretary General Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) comparing details of Chen's national support rate in the 2000 presidential election wit the results of recent polls, said Chen's popularity had gained steadily nation-wide, especially in central Taiwan's Taichung, Changhua and Nantou counties and the southern Taiwan's Kaohsiung City, Kaohsiung County and Pingtung County.

  Analyzing the recent gains in public support, director of the DPP's Public Opinion Survey Center Chen Chun-lin (陳俊麟) said the strengthening of support in southern Taiwan was largely as a result of the use of sovereignty-related strategies, such as the holding of a "defensive referendum."

  Chen Chun-lin said people in central Taiwan tended to be more concerned with the government's ability to initiate and complete local infrastructure construction and were favorably impressed by the DPP's record.

  In the Hakka-populated Miaoli, Hsinchu and Taoyuan areas, he said that, since the Hakka communities were highly clannish, the party would focus on expanding connections with local Hakka clan leaders.

  As for the urban Taipei area, where a majority of residents are mainlanders and as a result the area has shown more support for the pan-blue ticket, Chen Chun-lin said the city's residents were more influenced by the media which has been widely criticized for its pan-blue bias.
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