President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on Wednesday delivered her New Year’s address. Given the closeness to the presidential and legislative elections on Saturday next week, the speech was weighted heavily to some of the main issues of the campaign. Taiwanese also wanted to hear about her vision for the future.
Tsai spoke of the state of the nation, her administration’s achievements and its plans for the next four years if she secures re-election. However, her calculation seems to have been that the electorate has responded most favorably to her standing up to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the defense of Taiwan’s sovereignty.
More than half of the speech addressed the threat the CCP poses to Taiwan’s sovereignty; a full third of this section was on the Anti-infiltration Act (反滲透法) passed by the legislature on Tuesday. Tsai was clearly mindful of the controversial nature of the law.
Safeguarding a nation’s sovereignty is of paramount importance and it is right for the government to take the threat from the CCP seriously. Equally, the nation’s future depends on steady stewardship of the economy and navigating the tumultuous social changes ahead.
Tsai’s administration has introduced pension reforms — extremely divisive at the time, but nevertheless necessary for the health of state finances — and changes to labor laws, which were unpopular and poorly implemented initially, as well as legislation on same-sex marriage, again a divisive issue. It has also developed the New Southbound Policy for industrial and trade diversification away from overreliance on China and for closer alignment with the US’ “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy, and worked to reverse overseas relocation of Taiwanese companies.
Thus far, Tsai has been pointing the ship in the right direction, but has been unsteady and indecisive on the tiller. She has addressed issues born of the nation’s agricultural and industrial past, as well as the legacy of poor management by previous governments. The next few years will require strong, dexterous leadership.
Only 10 percent of her speech was devoted to a vision for Taiwan’s future. In it, she sees a Taiwan transformed into a center for high-end manufacturing; high-tech research and development; and sustainable energy development, as well as a hub for high-tech and industrial personnel training.
This is all going to be easier said than done.
The world is entering a new era, with the imminent introduction of 5G, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, virtual and augmented reality, the cloud and big data. How these technologies interact and evolve will lead to tumultuous industrial and social changes that will be disruptive, disconcerting and intimidating for many, especially those already in the workforce.
Tsai’s speech touched upon the government’s endeavors to increase the birthrate. However, what seems to be a demographic problem now might well be addressed by the application of the aforementioned technologies — what seems to be stable now might be plunged into turmoil in the near future.
Energy generation and storage will present another major challenge. The government is phasing out nuclear power, the right thing to do given the nation’s location in an earthquake zone and a problematic relationship with construction regulations. However, it must be replaced with reliable, constant and inexpensive sources of sustainable energy.
Coal-fired power stations are damaging to the environment. Sustainable energy technologies are improving, but are not fully mature, and, crucially, investors have to be confident that adequate infrastructure is in place before they invest.
Taiwan has many challenges ahead. Taiwanese need to know that they can rely on the nation’s leadership to have the competence and vision to be a reliable steward with an eye on the dangers ahead, not just with the economy in traditional forms such as agriculture and tourism, but with the issues that will define the future.
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