The international influence that China has around the world is without a doubt powerful. Taiwan, which is seen by China as a rebel province that must be unified — either through an agreement or by force — is probably the country that feels the negative effects of Beijing’s influence the most. Since 2016, the nation has lost five diplomatic allies, and faces the prospect of losing more.
Whenever a country breaks its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan, the nation usually swiftly reciprocates by shutting down its embassy in the country, halting all cooperation programs and removing government personnel from the former allied territory.
This has continued to be the trend since Beijing started to reduce the number of allies that still recognize the Republic of China (ROC) as an independent country after the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), whom it views as a threat.
When Taiwan broke ties with Sao Tome and Principe in December 2016, then-minister of foreign affairs David Lee (李大維) said that Taiwan was shutting down its embassy and stopping all cooperative programs with the African country, and that this was done to “safeguard the nation’s dignity.”
In that same month, a statement published on the Web site of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said that “to uphold the dignity of the nation, the ROC will close its embassy in Sao Tome and Principe, recall its technical mission, and end all bilateral cooperation projects.”
In the same statement, it mentioned the great contributions Taiwan made to reduce the incidence of malaria in Sao Tome and Principe from 50 percent in 2003 to 1.01 percent in 2015, and attributed the rupture between the countries to financial demands that Taipei was unwilling to meet.
The nation made a similar statement when Panama switched its diplomatic ties to China the following year, announcing that it would immediately sever ties with the Central American country. It was also announced in a statement on the MOFA Web site that the decision “extends to the immediate termination of all cooperative projects and assistance. Embassy officials and staff of technical missions will also return to Taiwan.”
Similar statements were made when the Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, and El Salvador broke ties later on, although it is important to mention that for El Salvador, it was Taiwan that announced it was severing ties before the Central American country did.
The closing of its embassies and halting of cooperation projects all seem like an appropriate response to what the government considers “a betrayal,” but it is the events that have unfolded after the rupture with El Salvador and the possibility that its newly elected government might switch its diplomatic ties back to the nation that raise an important question: Should Taipei look beyond pride and consider leaving a small mission, or even negotiate the possibility of a commercial office in the countries that switch ties to China?
The first reaction would probably be: No, why should Taiwan give any more money to a country that switched to China?
To that question, my answer would be that it should not continue to provide the same levels of financial support — and even if Taiwan were willing to do so, Beijing would most likely never allow it — but it should consider leaving some staff on the ground to represent the nation in case there is a change of government.
If the situation in El Salvador teaches Taiwan anything, it should be that a new government can be completely different from the previous one.
I wrote a piece titled “Regaining El Salvador as an ally,” (March 19, page 8) in which I talked about the possibility of resuming ties.
Since then, there have been no positive developments in the El Salvador-China relationship.
On April 25, in a televised interview for the news program Frente a Frente, the Chinese ambassador to El Salvador said that “the future of the relationship between China and El Salvador is uncertain,” due to criticism that has surrounded the new relationship between the two countries.
Salvadorean president-elect Nayib Bukele, who is to take over at the beginning of next month, was a bit more direct in an interview he gave to El Mundo in March, in which he said that the reason he has not met with the Chinese ambassador, or any Chinese officials for that matter, was because of under-the-table deals between the outgoing government and the government of China.
He even went so far as to say that some of those deals include “agreements to finance political campaigns” of people from the previous government.
If their relationship is severed and El Salvador resumes its diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it would be a positive development for the nation.
Maintaining diplomatic missions in former allied nations would leave a door open for Taiwan to regain those allies in the event that a new government that is not aligned with China takes over.
El Salvador would not be the first country that has resumed ties with Taiwan after recognizing China. The Gambia had recognized China since 1974, but in 1995 switched ties to Taiwan.
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega broke relations with Taiwan and established them with China in 1985. They were later restored by a right-wing government, and to this day, the relationship between Taiwan and Nicaragua remains undisturbed.
The possibility of this happening is quite slim, but to stay afloat in the diplomatic sphere, Taiwan must try to take advantage of any opportunities that might arise. The nation could cite examples of how China has not kept up with its commitments to other countries, such as what happened when Costa Rica’s national oil refinery (RECOPE) canceled a US$1 billion oil refinery project. The joint venture was supposed to be a symbol of Chinese-Costa Rican cooperation.
Taiwan could also try to convince newly elected government officials of the disadvantages that dealing with China might bring to their economies, such as the charges that its projects place an unsustainable burden on countries with weak economies, creating “debt traps” in some nations involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Sri Lanka.
All of these talking points would be better delivered to new governments if Taiwan could leave some of its skilled diplomats on the ground, rather than leaving the road clear for China.
Do not forget that the main objective of many of these projects is to help developing nations, and that many of them are already being carried out in countries that do not, and in some cases have never recognized, the ROC as an independent country.
If Taiwan is willing to send missions and open trade offices in countries that will probably never establish diplomatic ties with it, would it not be worth leaving a small operation in a country that at least could resume ties with the nation?
If China is unwilling to stop pressuring Taiwan while conducting its diplomatic affairs, Taiwan should not calmly move aside and let China do as it pleases. Leaving a door open for future administrations that might be willing to switch back to Taiwan should not be seen as a negative thing.
Juan Fernando Herrera Ramos is a Honduran lawyer residing in Taiwan with a master’s degree in business administration.
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