As spring spreads across the northern hemisphere, it looks like Taiwan’s upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for early next year, are beginning to heat up. Former premier William Lai (賴清德) has surprised some observers by declaring his interest in the job, despite the fact that his party currently occupies the Presidential Palace, and Madame Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) seems set to seek a second term. Meanwhile the Kuomintang (KMT) is beginning to focus on its own primary race. Past candidate Eric Chu (朱立倫) has expressed interest, as has former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). Perennial politician Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) is testing the waters. Newcomer Han Kuo-yu’s (韓國瑜) surprise election as Kaohsiung mayor makes him another possible candidate. The latest splash is the announcement that Hon Hai magnate Terry Gou (郭台銘) is considering a run, presumably on the KMT ticket.
Each of these candidates has their strengths and weaknesses, which I will attempt to handicap in my own imperfect way in a moment. But let’s pause here to highlight the main message. Taiwan’s relatively new experiment in democracy is thriving, in stark contrast to the situation across the strait. If anything, open governance within the PRC is backtracking. Current strongman Xi Jinping (習近平) has indicated he no longer wishes to respect the term limits informally instituted by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) more than two decades ago. Instead, this open fan of Chairman Mao (毛澤東) fancies himself the new emperor of China, with the desire to rule as long as he lives. Who knows, maybe he thinks he could make it to 2049, thus presiding over the 100th anniversary of the PRC!
In the absence of any real opinion polls in authoritarian China, we cannot be sure what the masses think of this. But I will go out on a limb and suggest it is a particularly bad idea, and will probably come to a bad end for the ambitious Xi. At a minimum, it dashes the hopes of younger communist leaders who might have grounded their support of Chairman Xi on the presumption they too would have a shot at the top job at some point. There are also enough people around who remember the chaos that accompanied Mao’s final years, as he gradually lost his capacity to rule, without enabling anyone else to take up the reins of power.
Before returning to Taiwan, I would like take a moment to assess events in Hong Kong. Let’s recall Deng Xiaoping’s pledge that under “one country, two systems” the former British colony would have the opportunity to choose its own leaders through democratic elections. This gave London some confidence the colony it so ably managed for over 150 years would enjoy greater freedom as it departed in 1997.
Alas, like so many of Beijing’s promises, this one has been honored in the breach, with the long hand from the north increasingly constricting participation of Hong Kong’s people in the selection both of both its chief executive and Legislative Council. Perhaps if the British weren’t so bogged down in Brexit affairs, they would be more vocal in their unhappiness over Chinese false pledges.
President Tsai faces some headwinds over the sluggish economy as her first term grows short. Her former premier has now announced his intention to contest the DPP nomination. It is possible other DPP hopefuls will follow suit. Concern over cross-strait relations has also probably not helped Tsai, but overall this still seems to reflect disarray within the party that may bode badly for them come 2020.
Terry Gou has the reputation as a shrewd businessman, who built one of the largest Asian conglomerates out of scratch. He enjoys close relations with leaders in China, though that may be a two-edged sword in Taiwan domestic politics. Gou will have to either win against more experienced KMT candidates, or ultimately seek office as an independent, something that has not gone well for previous such politicians (viz James Soong, 宋楚瑜).
We’ll have an opportunity in future columns to look more closely at the race for 2020 as time progresses. But for now, I want to simply say that Taiwan is demonstrating the rough and tumble of a still fairly new democratic state. It faces a multitude of problems, both at home and in its relationship with Xi’s China. Yet the contrast between Taiwan’s thriving democratic system and the hidebound authoritarianism of mainland China is worth celebrating, by all friends of the island.
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