With the increasing and monumental security threat from China, news media and experts like to compare the situations of foreign countries to that of Taiwan to predict the nation’s future.
However, due to Taiwan’s unique strategic location, history, and social and economic relations with its biggest threat, China, many analogies drawn between these countries and Taiwan are far-fetched or even erroneous.
Chang Ya-chung (張亞中), a professor of political science at National Taiwan University and an avid supporter of unification, suggested that Finland’s dealing with Soviet Union during the Cold War sets a good example for Taiwan. In order not to irritate the Soviet Union, Finland wisely adopted a balanced policy by not joining NATO or even the European Economic Community.
“Neither did Finland trust the commitment from far-away Washington, nor did it trust Paris and London. That is why Finland could survive during the Cold War and even outlived the Soviet Union. So Taiwan should not unilaterally follow the US’ global strategy and be its spearhead to counter China,” he said.
Chang’s argument is wildly off the mark and intentionally misleading.
First of all, the Soviet Union had not been hostilely claiming that Finland was part of its territory since the end of World War II, but rather signed a treaty with Finland to recognize its status of neutrality in 1948.
Furthermore, the Helsinki Accords, signed by then-US president Gerald Ford and then-Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev in 1978, stipulated that the two powers would respect the 1945 borders demarcated for Europe by wartime leaders Franklin D. Roosevelt, Joseph Stalin and Winston Churchill in Yalta.
Rather than purely pragmatic realpolitik considerations behind Finnish policymaking, the security of Finland during the Cold War was a result of the balance of power. It would not have been possible without the two superpowers’ strategic calculations and compromise.
After the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, Finland changed its policy accordingly. Not only did it join the EU in 1995, but it established close relations with NATO, becoming a member of its Partnership for Peace program in 1994.
Although Finland still declares itself a neutral country, it knows perfectly well that where its security interests truly lie.
Taiwan’s situation is completely different from that of Finland. It would be a big gift for China if Taiwan decided to adopt Finland’s approach.
The only reason that Taiwan still exists after 1979, when Taiwan and the US cut diplomatic relations, is its strong military capability and the US governments’ strong support.
Regarding Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, China would not hesitate to invade this democratic island once it considers Taiwan is vulnerable to its attacks.
Noticeably, the threat China poses to Taiwan is dauntingly increasing.
Communist China has a notorious and long history of deception. Its political promises are worthless. The indelible images of China’s bloody crackdown in Tibet in 1959 after it promised Tibetans a high degree of autonomy in 1951 and its ruthless breach of the “one country, two systems” principle in Hong Kong by seriously diminishing democratic rights and freedoms are vivid reminders.
The day Taiwan naively believes that it could secure peaceful cross-strait relations under China’s deceptive conciliatory gestures and rejects US security support would be the day Taiwan pays dearly for its terrible mistakes.
An editorial in the Chinese-language China Times, Taiwan’s top pro-Beijing newspaper, whose owner has huge business interests in China, claimed that the chaotic situation in Venezuela teaches Taiwan an important lesson.
“For most people, to be fed well is the top priority. With good governance by a government, people would accept an authoritarian regime; otherwise, people would rise against it whatever form the government is,” the editorial said.
There is a hidden agenda behind this editorial. As a flag-bearer to promote unification with China, the China Times and its sister TV stations, China Television and CtiTV, which are members of Want Want China Times Group, spare no effort to report political news in China’s favor.
The editorial adroitly transformed Venezuela’s economic distress into the media conglomerate’s political cause. It implied that embracing the Chinese market is the only solution to Taiwan’s economic problems and that Taiwan should strengthen economic ties with China to improve people’s lives.
Readers could not receive any information from any news from the China Times about how China uses its financial leverage and predatory lending to control some developing countries, a debt trap which worsens their economic woes.
In 2017, more than 40 percent of Taiwanese exports went to China and Hong Kong. This heavy dependency bodes ill for Taiwan. Without firing a shot, Beijing could easily use this economic weapon to stifle and destabilize Taiwanese society.
Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 is a stern warning to Taiwan. Taking advantage of the majority of ethnic Russians in Crimea, in February 2014, pro-Russia demonstrators launched protests on the streets and armed men in unmarked uniforms wearing masks seized airports and government buildings around Crimea, and the rest is history.
In his Jan. 2 speech to Taiwanese, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) claimed that “Chinese should never fight Chinese,” and that the non-peaceful means only target the “extremely few and pro-Taiwan independence separatists.”
This sophistry was aimed to divide Taiwanese and terrify those who are afraid of a war with China. Like Russia did in Crimea, China hopes to form a fifth column, either physical or psychological, within Taiwan.
Besides strengthening military capability, the government should also examine and identify international situations in the right perspective to protect its democracy and freedoms.
Tu Ho-ting is a senior journalist and international political analyst based in Taiwan.
In the US’ National Security Strategy (NSS) report released last month, US President Donald Trump offered his interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The “Trump Corollary,” presented on page 15, is a distinctly aggressive rebranding of the more than 200-year-old foreign policy position. Beyond reasserting the sovereignty of the western hemisphere against foreign intervention, the document centers on energy and strategic assets, and attempts to redraw the map of the geopolitical landscape more broadly. It is clear that Trump no longer sees the western hemisphere as a peaceful backyard, but rather as the frontier of a new Cold War. In particular,
When it became clear that the world was entering a new era with a radical change in the US’ global stance in US President Donald Trump’s second term, many in Taiwan were concerned about what this meant for the nation’s defense against China. Instability and disruption are dangerous. Chaos introduces unknowns. There was a sense that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) might have a point with its tendency not to trust the US. The world order is certainly changing, but concerns about the implications for Taiwan of this disruption left many blind to how the same forces might also weaken
As the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) races toward its 2027 modernization goals, most analysts fixate on ship counts, missile ranges and artificial intelligence. Those metrics matter — but they obscure a deeper vulnerability. The true future of the PLA, and by extension Taiwan’s security, might hinge less on hardware than on whether the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can preserve ideological loyalty inside its own armed forces. Iran’s 1979 revolution demonstrated how even a technologically advanced military can collapse when the social environment surrounding it shifts. That lesson has renewed relevance as fresh unrest shakes Iran today — and it should
As the new year dawns, Taiwan faces a range of external uncertainties that could impact the safety and prosperity of its people and reverberate in its politics. Here are a few key questions that could spill over into Taiwan in the year ahead. WILL THE AI BUBBLE POP? The global AI boom supported Taiwan’s significant economic expansion in 2025. Taiwan’s economy grew over 7 percent and set records for exports, imports, and trade surplus. There is a brewing debate among investors about whether the AI boom will carry forward into 2026. Skeptics warn that AI-led global equity markets are overvalued and overleveraged
RSS