China and the US have been making incessant moves against each other over the past few weeks. First there was the trade war, followed by a power rivalry playing out under the guise of military drills in the South China Sea. Both incidents serve to highlight Taiwan’s vital geopolitical role in the region.
Taking advantage of its growing global economic clout, China is using that power to underpin its diplomacy. It is luring other Asian countries through economic means, using fund allocations, investments and cultural links to gradually infiltrate and implant its economic influence around the world. Its purpose it to take greater control over the global market and become a world leader, creating an international environment that is conducive to implementing its “China dream.”
These moves are turning China into a powerful competitor to the US.
Friction over trade between China and the US has intensified and which could easily lead to political disagreements. It is therefore likely that the two countries’ future relationship will be defined more by competition than by cooperation.
China is also trying to hijack the global discourse and position itself to supplant the US as the world’s pre-eminent promoter and defender of free trade, using the lure of economic gain to attract small Asian-Pacific nations into its fold.
This big transformation of China will of course have an impact on the US’ traditional leadership in the region and impede its promotion of democracy in Asia. Furthermore, US strategic thinking is now focused on the Asia-Pacific region, increasing the odds of Washington and Beijing locking horns.
A dynamic development analysis shows that there is no longer a simple cross-strait issue. The regional and even the international situation is having an impact on the development of the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Due to Taiwan’s unique strategic position, its role is not just defined by geographic factors, but also by regional security considerations. That is why other nations are bolstering their exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan.
Taiwan’s relative economic strength means that it can attract the foreign capital it needs to continue to develop and prosper. If Taiwan can develop into a stable and mature regional power, Western democracies will naturally seek Taiwan’s cooperation on regional issues and to help ease the increasingly unstable situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Continuity in US foreign policy means that the development of Taiwan-US relations closely reflects the two nations’ shared strategic goals.
From Washington’s perspective, Taiwan has an important role in maintaining the balance of power in the region.
Taiwan’s democratic model of governance gives the country an advantageous foothold on the international stage, as the US and Taiwan share democratic values and geopolitical interests. This means that Washington will increase its support for Taiwan to shore up the balance of power, both internationally and in the Asia-Pacific region.
Increased regional security will inevitably lead to deeper and more meaningful bilateral exchanges between Taiwan and the US, as well as stronger cooperation in various fields.
Turning to China, as Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is tightening and widening his grip on power, pressure on Taiwan will increase on an almost daily basis. Xi’s strong sense of mission will push the cross-strait relationship into uncharted waters and present new challenges for Taiwan.
As Xi further cements his grip on power, he will deal equally strongly with domestic and foreign affairs, and will more actively demonstrate his resolution to defend Chinese interests. This will have a direct impact on the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
With its ultimate goal of uniting Taiwan with China on its mind, Beijing has for a long time been testing Taiwan’s democratic system, which has had an adverse impact on cross-strait exchanges and communication.
As the cross-strait and regional power structure changes, China will continue to reduce Taiwan’s space on the global stage by adding pressure on its international allies to chip away at Taiwan’s sovereignty: Taiwan will be forced to deal with an ever more complex array of challenges.
Structural factors that have historically hindered the cross-strait relationship include disputes over differing value systems and different systems of governance, and a lack of mutual respect and reciprocity.
To achieve a positive relationship, the two sides must put their differences aside, seek common ground, show mutual respect, and pursue a model of coexistence and common prosperity, so that Taiwan can take its well-deserved place within the international community.
Due to Taiwan’s strategic importance, it is vital that it build up its strength, and work to enhance its international status and visibility so that the nation could become a role model, expand multilateral exchanges, bolster its democratic values and build up its confidence.
Chang Yan-ting is an adjunct professor at National Defense University.
Translated by Edward Jones and Chang Ho-ming
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