The US has been roiled by debates over immigration. Japan has the opposite problem — not enough debate. Immigration is happening, and no one is talking about it or preparing to deal with it.
Americans tend to use Japan as an example of a nation that does not take in immigrants. For example, my Bloomberg View colleague Justin Fox recently wrote that “politicians have so far been unwilling to allow immigration to take up the slack” of an aging population.
It is true that Japan has a small foreign-born population compared with other countries. However, this image of Japan as a closed nation gets two things wrong.
Illustration: Mountain people
First, Japan does not actually do much to keep out immigrants.
It has no legal limits on the number of people who can get work visas there, the number of people who can get permanent residency or the number who can become naturalized citizens.
This stands in contrast to the US, which still imposes legal limits on immigration.
Moreover, Japan, unlike most countries, does not require permanent residency as a prerequisite for becoming a naturalized citizen.
It is true that Japan, like most countries, does not have birthright citizenship. Japan also takes very few refugees, but in general, it has unusually lax immigration controls.
The reason for Japan’s low immigration levels is that relatively few foreigners have chosen to move there.
Second, Japan’s immigration numbers have risen substantially in recent years.
The nation’s foreign-born population grew by about 150,000 last year, to a total of 2.3 million, with most of the increase coming from other countries in Asia. That is about three-quarters as many as Canada.
Japan’s population is much larger, so it is not about to enter the ranks of high-immigration countries, but it is definitely not the walled garden many in the US make it out to be.
Walking around Tokyo these days, the change is palpable.
Chinese exchange students work the cash registers at convenience stores and the reception desks at hotels. Indian salespeople offer English-language help at electronics stores. Brazilian chefs serve up grilled chicken at restaurants, Africans sell clothing on the street in youth districts, and Canadian and US finance workers shuffle around ritzy neighborhoods in flip-flops and shorts.
Many believe that immigration will be a positive for Japan. It will certainly help slow the decline of the nation’s aging population, giving companies more of a reason to invest there and helping to keep the pension and healthcare systems funded. Skilled immigrants will also help Japanese technology companies compete in global markets and improve its financial system.
However, all is not well in the world of Japanese immigration.
Unlike Canada or other high-immigration countries, neither Japan’s leaders nor its people seem prepared to deal with the flow of newcomers in a proactive way.
When I talk to Japanese government workers and to people involved in immigration policy, I get the sense that the influx of foreigners is seen as a temporary phenomenon.
The government simply expects most foreign workers to stay in the country for only a short time, and then leave — a rotating workforce that gets constantly switched out.
Some believe that the new arrivals will return to their home countries after the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Others insist that Japan is not the type of place that foreigners want to move to.
On the policy front, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration has made one very good step, which is to introduce a Canada-style points-based system for skilled immigrants.
That is good, because skilled workers tend to have an easier time integrating into local cultures and are less likely to be blamed if wages fall for the working class.
However, most of the government’s efforts involve guest-worker programs.
Guest workers generally take low-earning, low-productivity jobs. Worse, guest workers are temporary residents, with less of a connection to Japanese culture, fewer local ties and poorer language skills.
They will therefore be slower to integrate, and if Japan suffers a disaster, war, or economic downturn, these workers could be vulnerable to scapegoating.
That in turn would lead to an exodus of workers, depriving Japanese companies of the labor they had counted on and exacerbating the economic pain.
It would also damage the lives of many of these vulnerable workers, many of whom will by that time have spouses and children in Japan. An anti-immigrant backlash in Japan could even lead to xenophobic leaders taking power — think US President Donald Trump with Japanese characteristics.
Instead of assuming that foreign workers are temporary residents who will eventually depart, Japanese leaders should plan for the reality that many will stay.
This means more active programs of assimilation, including making sure that the children of immigrants attend Japanese schools. It also means more permanent residents and fewer guest workers, and more of a shift toward skills-based immigration.
Making room for permanent residents will require government policies like language education, assistance with naturalization and urban planning to ensure adequate housing.
So there is much to be done. If managed wisely, immigration can be a boon for Japan — but if allowed to proceed in an ad hoc manner, it could present dangers in the years to come.
Noah Smith is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University and he blogs at Noahpinion. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
As Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party won by a landslide in Sunday’s parliamentary election, it is a good time to take another look at recent developments in the Maldivian foreign policy. While Muizzu has been promoting his “Maldives First” policy, the agenda seems to have lost sight of a number of factors. Contemporary Maldivian policy serves as a stark illustration of how a blend of missteps in public posturing, populist agendas and inattentive leadership can lead to diplomatic setbacks and damage a country’s long-term foreign policy priorities. Over the past few months, Maldivian foreign policy has entangled itself in playing