On Friday, northern Taiwan was hit by torrential rain, turning Keelung and the north coast into disaster areas. According to an initial report issued by the Central Emergency Operation Center, one person died, two went missing and five were injured, while 3,800 people had to be evacuated. Power and water supplies to about 15,000 households were disrupted and 970 sites were flooded.
The weather front moved south, and central and southern Taiwan were also hit.
This is not the first time that torrential rain has resulted in disaster. The worst floods to hit the nation were in 1959, from Aug. 7 to Aug. 9, with 1,075 people dead or missing.
That was not the result of a typhoon either, but of a tropical depression that brought southwesterly winds and heavy rain. There have been many such incidents over the years. In June alone there was June 3, 1984, in which 33 people died; June 2, 1993, four deaths; June 9, 2006, seven deaths; and June 10, 2012, eight deaths. Going back further, 20 people died on June 12, 1966, and more recently, there was last year’s flooding of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport.
The losses are shocking.
After a typhoon forms in a low-pressure area, countries in the region pay attention. They track its movement, while central and local governments take appropriate preventive measures.
However, it seems like torrential rain does not receive the same level of attention.
This month, before the rain hit on Friday, the Central Weather Bureau issued an analysis of rainfall trends, but the forecast precipitation was on the low side and the positioning was off. Water resources and protection agencies follow regulations and once the bureau issues a torrential rain advisory, these authorities set up response teams.
However, local governments do not seem to pay much attention, as response centers are never set up in a timely manner.
There are limits to weather forecasts and it is probably not easy to use forecast models that highlight regional differences in a geographically small place like Taiwan.
If the bureau was to intentionally exaggerate its forecasts, that could cause panic. It could also be perceived as having a “crying wolf” mentality and people would stop paying attention to it.
Climate change means that extreme weather is likely to become more frequent. Weather forecasts, especially long and short-term forecasts on rainfall and regionally specific forecasts, are urgently needed. In modern societies, it is also increasingly necessary to gain an accurate understanding of regional rainfall.
The definition of torrential rain has already been raised to 200mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period and heavy torrential rain as 350mm over the same period. When such heavy volumes of rain fall on a city, drainage systems are unable to cope. Super heavy torrential rain, defined as 500mm rainfall over a 24-hour-period, will definitely cause disasters. This is why local governments cannot rely on past experience and continue to think that torrential rainfall is a triviality. Instead, they must emulate water resource authorities and set up response centers as soon as a torrential rain advisory is issued.
As the government is pushing for the implementation of the Forward-looking Infrastructure Development Program, it should allocate more resources and technical staff to the bureau. Perhaps doing so could help it take a more aggressive approach to developing a rainfall forecast model that is suitable for a geographically small region like Taiwan.
Chang Yen-ming is a former deputy director of the Taichung branch of the Water Resources Agency.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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