Just as Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) was visiting the US for talks with US President Donald Trump, unconfirmed reports were coming in that the US is considering a new round of military sales to Taiwan.
According to the reports, Taiwan might be offered the weapons deal this summer, and the package may include advanced air defense systems as well as Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II multirole jets.
Certain commentators in Taiwan might welcome the news, saying it signifies the US’ continued support of Taiwan and its capability of defending itself in the event of a military invasion by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
The 2016 Air Defense Options for Taiwan: report published by conservative US think tank the RAND Corporation suggested that F-35 aircraft, while extremely potent, would not actually be suited to the reinforcement of Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.
The first problem concerns the expense incurred and whether the money would be more wisely spent elsewhere; the second concerns where the F-35s would fit in with Taiwan’s existing military capabilities and whether a focus on fighter jets as part of the defense mix is a good idea.
First of all, purchasing F-35s would not necessarily increase the size of the Republic of China Air Force fleet, as it would likely mean retiring existing fighters while retrofitting others. The air force’s budget, after all, is limited. Money spent on this pursuit would further strain financial resources available for bolstering other parts of the defensive mix, such as surface-to-air (SAM) missile systems, which are crucial to repel the missiles the PLAAF would fire at Taiwan in the event of conflict, and this leads to the second point.
In a sustained PLAAF missile offensive on Taiwan, most of the nation’s aircraft, including any newly purchased F-35s, would be extremely vulnerable to being blown up on the ground by guided bombs. Those that survived would be left without adequate support infrastructure, and even those that were able to take off would likely not have a functioning airbase to return to: Air force base runways would be rendered useless by ballistic missiles and aircraft hangars would be destroyed by low-altitude cruise missiles.
Case studies in the RAND report suggested that “fighters are too vulnerable to ground attack to be able to play a decisive role in air defense under a very large attack of the kind that the PLA is now equipped to deliver.”
The report said that very large investments in fighter aircraft are “unlikely to prove particularly potent in the future.”
The answer is a shift in emphasis to SAM defense systems. Due to budgetary constraints, this would necessitate declining any offer of F-35s and redirecting the savings made to acquiring the new missile defense systems.
The decision to launch a military attack on Taiwan involves far more complex considerations than the relative merits and amount of hardware. To China, a military offensive is certainly not the most desirable means for achieving “unification.”
Beijing would have to consider what it would mean in terms of the losses China would sustain in equipment, personnel and infrastructure; its standing in the international community; its reputation among already jittery neighbors; how it would deal with a resistant and resentful Taiwanese population for decades afterwards; what absorbing 23 million people used to liberal democracy would mean for China’s own political stability and how it would proceed if its initial offensive failed.
However, Taiwan needs to be prepared for any eventuality. Instead of jumping at any chance to buy new weapons, the government must consider such purchases carefully and in the context of Taiwan’s own defensive needs.
On March 22, 2023, at the close of their meeting in Moscow, media microphones were allowed to record Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dictator Xi Jinping (習近平) telling Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin, “Right now there are changes — the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years — and we are the ones driving these changes together.” Widely read as Xi’s oath to create a China-Russia-dominated world order, it can be considered a high point for the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea (CRINK) informal alliance, which also included the dictatorships of Venezuela and Cuba. China enables and assists Russia’s war against Ukraine and North Korea’s
After thousands of Taiwanese fans poured into the Tokyo Dome to cheer for Taiwan’s national team in the World Baseball Classic’s (WBC) Pool C games, an image of food and drink waste left at the stadium said to have been left by Taiwanese fans began spreading on social media. The image sparked wide debate, only later to be revealed as an artificially generated image. The image caption claimed that “Taiwanese left trash everywhere after watching the game in Tokyo Dome,” and said that one of the “three bad habits” of Taiwanese is littering. However, a reporter from a Japanese media outlet
Taiwanese pragmatism has long been praised when it comes to addressing Chinese attempts to erase Taiwan from the international stage. “Taipei” and the even more inaccurate and degrading “Chinese Taipei,” imposed titles required to participate in international events, are loathed by Taiwanese. That is why there was huge applause in Taiwan when Japanese public broadcaster NHK referred to the Taiwanese Olympic team as “Taiwan,” instead of “Chinese Taipei” during the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics. What is standard protocol for most nations — calling a national team by the name their country is commonly known by — is impossible for
The Iran war has exposed a fundamental vulnerability in the global energy system. The escalating confrontation between Iran, Israel and the US has begun to shake international energy markets, largely because Iran is disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway carries roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil, making it one of the most strategically sensitive energy corridors in the world. Even the possibility of disruption has triggered sharp volatility in global oil prices. The duration and scope of the conflict remain uncertain, with senior US officials offering contradictory signals about how long military operations might continue.
RSS