The trans-Pacific telephone conversation between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and US president-elect Donald Trump last week shocked the world as it opened a new window of opportunities and challenges for Taiwan.
Diplomatically, Trump sent a strong message to Beijing that he went beyond the “one China” policy to recognize Taiwan as a political equal and the third-largest client of US arms sales.
Bypassing the White House and the US Department of State and ignoring 35 years of US diplomatic protocol, Trump seems to be prepared to play tough with China and might want to make Taiwan a bargaining chip in negotiations with Beijing over major political, strategic and economic issues.
The call was part of a larger diplomatic entanglement between the US and China. In October, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte threatened to break ties with Washington, reject the US naval base renewal proposal and form a strategic alliance with China.
Shortly after the US’ presidential election, former Republican US presidential candidate Marco Rubio, who welcomed Tsai to Miami in June, met Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong (黃之鋒) in Washington and sponsored, along with Senator Tom Cotton, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, legislation which criticizes Beijing’s suppression of civil rights in the territory.
A new consensus appears to be emerging among US lawmakers critical of China. The incoming US administration seems to be rethinking its terms of diplomatic engagement with Beijing. If so, Trump will distance himself from US President Barack Obama’s cautious approach toward Beijing and increase military support to Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act.
However, Taiwan still faces obstacles to normalizing relations with the US. First, endorsing neither Taiwanese independence nor any change of the “status quo,” the act is vague about the level of US military involvement and leaves the option of direct military intervention to the US president in non-peaceful and coercive circumstances.
Second, Trump is a pragmatist and notorious for changing his positions on domestic and international matters. The danger is whether he might abandon Taiwan after coming to grips with China’s changing realities and extracting sufficient concessions from Beijing.
Third, history teaches us valuable lessons. The initial relationship between former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and the US was collegial. In April 2001, then-US president George W. Bush promised to do “whatever it took to help Taiwan defend themselves” against China and authorized the biggest arms sales to Taiwan in a decade.
However, US-Taiwan relations deteriorated after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and Washington needed Beijing’s support for its “war on terror.” Meanwhile, Chen doubled up efforts to push for a permanent separation from China. In 2007 and 2008, Chen proposed a national referendum on Taiwan’s application for UN membership as an independent state. Unfortunately, the US opposed the UN membership referendum, thereby eroding popular support for Chen.
The phone call provides a glimpse of hope for Taiwan. Tsai recognizes that this is a golden opportunity to reset its diplomatic agendas, deepen bilateral ties with the US and make itself heard in the global civil society.
Much needs to be done to prepare for and raise the profile of Tsai’s official trip to Central America next month. Striving to be a major player in geopolitics, Taiwan should examine, adapt and appropriate the new East Asian policy of the Trump administration to maximize diplomatic space for its own empowerment.
Joseph Tse-Hei Lee is professor of history at Pace University in New York City.
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