The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Central Standing Committee has unanimously adopted a motion to replace Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) as the party’s presidential candidate. The KMT plans to a hold an extempore party congress to replace Hung with KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫).
Although this has sparked controversy, pan-blue legislative candidates, who felt that their election bids were endangered, have breathed a collective sigh of relief and wholeheartedly supported the decision.
The KMT has a fight on its hands because of its sudden decision to change candidates, as Hung stubbornly refuses to retire from the ring. It is unlikely that all these ups and downs will save the legislative election for the KMT.
Most people are not optimistic. No matter who takes Hung’s place, the presidential election is already lost and it seems difficult for the KMT to retain all its legislative seats. A majority of the public believes that the KMT is on the verge of total collapse.
It is not as if the KMT has not split in the past, but after such divides, it has always been able to quickly recover its esprit de corps, because local factions that control the pillars of the community were usually able to quickly pull voters back in. It is a tight network of people and although there have been divisions, the KMT was able to swiftly bounce back.
There are still a lot of local factions controlling key local players, but it looks as if these players will not be able to pull voters back in for the Jan. 16 elections. Such a thing has never happened before.
The KMT started out as an authoritarian party and it has always been controlled by Mainlanders. Even former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), when he was party chairman, could not escape the constraints imposed by these forces. It was because of this reason that the National Unification Council and National Unification Guidelines came to being.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is a local party. Some criticize it by saying that it has turned into a copy of the KMT. However, regardless of who heads the party, the DPP remains focused on Taiwan, while the KMT remains China-centric.
Since the KMT’s web of influence is very strong, many Taiwanese support this foreign party. If all Taiwanese supported local parties, the KMT would have collapsed a long time ago.
Before the 2012 presidential election, President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) popularity in the polls was very low, but he was re-elected. After his re-election, he sought to end Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng’s (王金平) political career on an absurd pretext.
Wang, as legislative speaker, has been very professional, maintaining neutrality and gaining the respect of a majority of Taiwanese. Ma’s attempt to eliminate Wang made the public feel that a foreign bully was oppressing him.
The KMT’s planned replacement of Hung with Chu has nothing to do with Wang, yet the foreign forces supporting Hung still said “down with Wang.”
Most Taiwanese believe that the foreign forces are suppressing the public. This has led to a backlash and an exodus from pan-blue pillars of the community.
Even if Hung were replaced and the KMT achieved unity, the party’s key local players would not be able to retain the electorate. This is pushing the KMT to the verge of disintegration. The biggest mistake Ma and his supporters have made was to provoke ethnic antagonism.
Chen Mao-hsiung is an adjunct professor at National Sun Yat-sen University and chairman of the Society for the Promotion of Taiwanese Security.
Translated by Clare Lear
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