Faced with the possibility of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) returning to power next year, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) threatened that should the DPP not conduct cross-strait relations on the basis of the so-called “1992 consensus,” cross-strait ties would become volatile and unstable.
The “1992 consensus” is a tacit understanding between the Chinese government and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with both sides having their own interpretation of what “China” means.
The fact that China is now playing the “1992 consensus” card eight months ahead of the presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan next year shows that it is very anxious about the possibility of a DPP president. However, the “1992 consensus” card will be much less effective in the coming elections than it was in 2012, so China should be pragmatic in its dialogue with the DPP.
From China’s point of view, the “1992 consensus” is associated with harmonious development and a cross-strait peace dividend. Taiwanese and the DPP also want peaceful cross-strait development. However, if China threatens the DPP, it is likely to damage its own credibility.
Besides, if the DPP takes over the reins of government without accepting the “1992 consensus,” Xi is likely to come under heavy pressure. He risks reinforcing the impression that China is just manipulating the fears of Taiwanese and playing a game of chicken with the DPP — a game that could lead to both sides getting hurt
The current position in the DPP is embodied in its 1999 Resolution on Taiwan’s Future. The DPP does not accept the “1992 consensus,” but it will not adopt radical policies that might upset the stability of cross-strait relations.
If the DPP takes control of the government without accepting the “1992 consensus,” China might break off negotiations between the Straits Exchange Foundation and China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits. It might also take foreign policy measures to suppress Taiwan; maybe even make military threats. However, even if the two sides find it impossible to continue their dialogue and negotiations, it would only mean returning to a confrontational stalemate; it would almost certainly not lead to war.
The “1992 consensus” card was effective in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election because it was associated with a cross-strait peace dividend. However, over the seven years during which President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has been in office, the promised peace dividend has not borne fruit. Even though there has been a dividend of sorts, it has been very limited and unevenly distributed, being concentrated in the hands of a minority of rich and powerful people.
With regard to foreign relations, Taiwan has had no option but to make compromises for the sake of the greater good, such as attending the World Health Assembly as an observer and the International Civil Aviation Organization as a guest.
As far as regional integration is concerned, the only breakthroughs Taiwan has made are the economic partnership agreements it has signed with New Zealand and Singapore. Since these two countries only represent 3.6 percent of Taiwan’s total foreign trade, these agreements hardly resolve the crisis of Taiwan’s marginalization.
As for economic interests, the elite comprador economy built up through a series of forums involving representatives of the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is very unpopular in Taiwan. It is a liability arising from the “1992 consensus” card, not an asset.
Cross-strait economic dealings have not brought economic benefits to the nation, and ordinary Taiwanese have gained little from it. The KMT-CCP forums and backroom cross-strait negotiations have concentrated on a rich and powerful minority, while causing worries about national security and the growing gap between rich and poor.
China need only look at the public opinion polls carried out in the nation to see the likely effects of playing the “1992 consensus” card. Recent polls show that only a little over 20 percent of people in Taiwan are satisfied with the Ma administration’s cross-strait policies. China should not misjudge the mood and imagine that threatening the DPP with the “1992 consensus” would work in its favor.
If a DPP president is elected without having bowed to such threats, it would cause cross-strait relations to sink into a stalemate. If the DPP and CCP do not have sufficient mutual trust to engage in dialogue, it will be very hard to maintain peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait.
China should pragmatically adjust its policies to engage the DPP in dialogue, and establish mutual trust and understanding. That is the only way in which a new model for peaceful cross-strait development can be found.
Tung Chen-yuan is a distinguished professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies.
Translated by Julian Clegg
The image was oddly quiet. No speeches, no flags, no dramatic announcements — just a Chinese cargo ship cutting through arctic ice and arriving in Britain in October. The Istanbul Bridge completed a journey that once existed only in theory, shaving weeks off traditional shipping routes. On paper, it was a story about efficiency. In strategic terms, it was about timing. Much like politics, arriving early matters. Especially when the route, the rules and the traffic are still undefined. For years, global politics has trained us to watch the loud moments: warships in the Taiwan Strait, sanctions announced at news conferences, leaders trading
The saga of Sarah Dzafce, the disgraced former Miss Finland, is far more significant than a mere beauty pageant controversy. It serves as a potent and painful contemporary lesson in global cultural ethics and the absolute necessity of racial respect. Her public career was instantly pulverized not by a lapse in judgement, but by a deliberate act of racial hostility, the flames of which swiftly encircled the globe. The offensive action was simple, yet profoundly provocative: a 15-second video in which Dzafce performed the infamous “slanted eyes” gesture — a crude, historically loaded caricature of East Asian features used in Western
Is a new foreign partner for Taiwan emerging in the Middle East? Last week, Taiwanese media reported that Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu (吳志中) secretly visited Israel, a country with whom Taiwan has long shared unofficial relations but which has approached those relations cautiously. In the wake of China’s implicit but clear support for Hamas and Iran in the wake of the October 2023 assault on Israel, Jerusalem’s calculus may be changing. Both small countries facing literal existential threats, Israel and Taiwan have much to gain from closer ties. In his recent op-ed for the Washington Post, President William
A stabbing attack inside and near two busy Taipei MRT stations on Friday evening shocked the nation and made headlines in many foreign and local news media, as such indiscriminate attacks are rare in Taiwan. Four people died, including the 27-year-old suspect, and 11 people sustained injuries. At Taipei Main Station, the suspect threw smoke grenades near two exits and fatally stabbed one person who tried to stop him. He later made his way to Eslite Spectrum Nanxi department store near Zhongshan MRT Station, where he threw more smoke grenades and fatally stabbed a person on a scooter by the roadside.
RSS