Independent Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) seems to be holding the lead in the race. However, due to the particular makeup of Taipei’s electorate, it is impossible to make any definite predictions about the results of the elections on Saturday next week.
It is difficult to understand why some Taiwanese media outlets are so confident in their analyses that Ko is to defeat Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Taipei mayoral candidate Sean Lien (連勝文).
Fortunately, Ko himself appears quite calm and collected and seems to believe the old adage that pride goes before a fall. Taipei traditionally leans heavily in favor of the “pan-blue camp.”
Over the next nine days, the KMT is likely to do all it can to build up a sense of crisis among likely pan-blue voters. About 25 percent of voters still have to make up their minds which candidate to vote for and the impact of these floating voters must not be underestimated.
There are about 2.14 million eligible voters in Taipei. Assuming that about 70 percent of them turn out on election day, Ko must obtain 750,000 votes to get elected. In previous important elections in the capital, parties other than the KMT or candidates representing other parties have never received more than 700,000 votes — 46 percent.
In 1998, then-incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayor and later president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) — who at the time maintained an approval rating of more than 70 percent, the highest for 30 years — still failed to win re-election.
Conversely, it is very rare that a KMT candidate receives less than 700,000 votes. For example, when the pan-blue vote was split in 1994, the KMT candidate, then-mayor Huang Ta-chou (黃大洲), and New Party cofounder Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) received just over 789,000 votes combined.
When the pan-blue vote was split in 2006, Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) received just over 745,000 votes combined.
The same pattern applies to other elections, such as presidential and legislative elections.
This year, the political landscape has changed and the younger generation supports Ko. However, in presidential elections, the number of votes cast for the main parties is unlikely to fluctuate. Voting tendencies among the electorate are quite consistent.
Lien’s prospects do not appear bright in next week’s balloting and some pan-blue supporters are grumbling, but only a tiny minority are likely to turn around and support Ko. At the most, the rest will simply abstain from voting.
The KMT relies on a multifaceted voter-mobilization machine, and there are both the city councilor and the borough warden elections, meaning voter turnout should not be too low, and once someone has made it to the voting station, it is easy to guess how they will vote.
Anyone who thinks that former vice president Lien Chan (連戰) is prepared to say just about anything out of concern for his son’s election prospects sorely underestimates the elder Lien’s political astuteness.
It is precisely as Ko said: On the final mile leading up to the ballot box on election day, it is important to breathe deeply and remain calm.
As long as the main character remains calm and composed, everyone else will also remain calm. If they fail to do so, not only are they unable to help, they might even make things worse.
Lin Chia-cheng is a former deputy mayor of Taipei.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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