Ever since President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) came to power, his policy implementation has been weak and the only thing he could possibly brag about has been cross-strait relations. However, despite all Taiwan’s compromises, warning signals are sounding regarding the cross-strait relationship.
The Chinese newspaper Global Times, which falls under the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) mouthpiece the People’s Daily, on Monday reported that Chinese students in Taiwan had been recruited by Taiwan’s security agencies to collect intelligence after returning to China.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) spokesperson Fan Liqing (范麗青) has stressed repeatedly, with increasing force, that Taiwan must immediately cease this activity, which shows that this is not a straightforward matter and cross-strait relations are changing.
This year, the Sunflower movement has prevented the cross-strait service trade agreement being railroaded through the legislature; in June, TAO Minister Zhang Zhijun (張志軍) was met by protests when visiting Taiwan; and in August, the Ma administration accused former Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) deputy minister Chang Hsien-yao (張顯耀) of leaking secrets and there were rumors that Chang, Taiwan’s top cross-strait negotiator, had been recruited as a spy by China, creating an awkward impasse in cross-strait relations.
China is worried that the “Umbrella revolution” in Hong Kong could result in Hong Kong joining Taiwan in calling for independence. This was why Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Sept. 26 said that “one country, two systems” would apply to Taiwan as well, replacing the so-called “1992 consensus.”
On Double Ten National Day, Ma “repaid the favor” by expressing support for the Hong Kong demonstrations and saying he hoped that China would “allow some people to enjoy democracy first.” The TAO immediately responded that “Taiwan should not be making irresponsible remarks about Hong Kong’s political reforms.”
Ma has been hoping for a meeting with Xi at the APEC summit, but Xi, clearly displeased with Ma, has poured cold water on the idea and does not want to break with precedent by allowing Ma to attend the summit.
Recruiting Chinese students as spies for Taiwan is nothing new. The Global Times has been carefully revealing basic information about the Taiwanese intelligence staff allegedly involved in these activities, implying that it is perhaps Taiwan’s intelligence agencies that have been infiltrated.
That China is revealing this case, while the hawks in Beijing are becoming increasingly vociferous rather than trying to resolve the issue through back-door channels, shows that fundamental issues of trust between the top leaders on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are in question.
The day after the Global Times report, the Ma administration announced that senior civil servants would not be allowed to study in China, with immediate effect. In addition to this strong response to China’s accusations, the dampened enthusiasm for China among Taiwanese officials could also help prevent China from recruiting Taiwanese officials as spies.
The Ma administration has always slavishly followed China’s lead in the cross-strait relationship, but it is now less enthusiastic. This is good for Taiwan, because it will once again balance Taiwan’s relations with China and the rest of the world, instead of leaning lopsidedly toward China. However, in just a few months, cross-strait exchanges, which had seemed so warm, have been returned to square one: It has not been a “cold peace,” but rather a “cold war” relationship.
Cross-strait animosity has not diminished, nor has spying. Had the Sunflower movement not caused cross-strait relations to cool in March, Ma might have agreed to unfavorable conditions just to meet with Xi.
Cooling things down and maintaining an appropriate distance could stabilize Taiwan’s foreign relations.
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