Hong Kongers are still fighting for true universal suffrage. Over the past week or so, students have stayed away from classes, droves of people have been involved in the Occupy Central movement and the civil disobedience movement has opposed the Beijing authorities and the Hong Kong government.
That this was all happening around Oct. 1, China’s national day, was a serious loss of face for the Chinese authorities. This “umbrella revolution,” emerging in a similar vein to the Sunflower protest movement in Taiwan in March and April, has had the world transfixed.
The umbrella revolution was born out of frustration at Beijing’s broken promises. After the infamous white paper in June that reiterated Beijing’s determination to maintain an iron grip on Hong Kong’s affairs, the authorities also blocked universal suffrage for elections of Hong Kong’s chief executive with plans to control the elections by screening candidates. With this move, Beijing reneged on promises it had made to Hong Kongers and to the international community, and people rose in protest.
By chance, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) only recently reiterated the “one country, two systems” (一國兩制) idea that former Chinese supreme leader Deng -Xiaoping (鄧小平) had suggested for Taiwan, and many observers monitoring the unfolding situation in Hong Kong have also mentioned Taiwan by name. For example, the New York Times’ editorial on Sept. 30 commented that, given what is happening in Hong Kong, Taiwanese no longer have any reason to trust China’s “one country, two systems” formula. Others have warned that what is happening in Hong Kong awaits Taiwan down the line.
On the surface, Taiwan’s situation is very different from that of Hong Kong.
Taiwan is a sovereign, independent country, in which there are direct presidential elections and a national legislature filled with elected public representatives, and it has its own military. The concept of national autonomy is instilled in the national psyche.
By comparison, Hong Kong is a former British colony, handed back 17 years ago to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Notice the “People’s” and the cruel irony therein: The people of Hong Kong, even today, have precious little control over their own destiny, which is decided instead by 170 Hong Kong Legislative Council representatives who are hand-picked by Beijing, and Beijing insists upon proposals for a form of universal suffrage that falls short of international standards. Beijing has shown itself to be colonialist and manipulative in its handling of Hong Kong, and this has shown its promises of “one country, two systems,” “rule by Hong Kongers, for Hong Kongers” (港人治港) and a “high degree of autonomy” (高度自治) to be entirely empty. From this, it would seem that there is little point in looking for similarities between the two.
However, on further exploration, it becomes apparent that the differences between Hong Kong and Taiwan are not quite so significant in terms of their relationship with Beijing. There is a smouldering threat that lies beneath the surface that at times is worse than that faced by Hong Kong. It is that latent threat that the more prescient commentators see all too clearly: that the beast Hong Kong is grappling with today lies in wait for Taiwan further down the road, and in several senses is already breathing down our necks.
We can feel its presence in several aspects. The most evident is in our economic reliance on China. China accounts for a full half of Hong Kong’s export trade, while 40 percent of Taiwan’s exports are to China, and Taiwanese investments overseas are concentrated in China. If the cross-strait trade in services and trade in goods agreements are passed, the door will be flung open for Taiwan’s economic reliance on China to become even more entrenched.
The issue of Chinese tourists in Taiwan is even more evident. The growth in the number of Chinese tourists that the government is so proud of has also led to noise and chaos at many of Taiwan’s most popular tourist sites. Large numbers of Chinese tourists are also causing problems in Hong Kong, with frequent altercations breaking out between the local population and tourists from the mainland.
China is clearly trying to expedite unification with Taiwan by promoting closer economic ties and dovetailing the two economies.
During a recent interview, former US secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton said Taipei’s push for closer cross-strait ties could lead to Taiwan losing its economic and political independence and becoming vulnerable to over-reliance on China. It will lead to China applying increasing pressure on Taiwan and restricting its international space, and this makes it all the more difficult to maintain a sense of national dignity.
The government is already being lobbied by Taiwanese businesspeople on behalf of Chinese officials. This phenomenon has been known for some time. Leading Taiwanese businesspeople have been kowtowing to Chinese officials. We are seeing this not only in Beijing, but in Taipei. The most obvious recent examples are the way Beijing made it quite clear how it wanted the 2012 presidential election here to go, and how it arranged for Taiwanese businesspeople in China to return and vote.
This phenomenon is showing itself once more, only stronger this time. There is already a precedent for Beijing backing the mayors of the special municipalities. China has a history of trying to influence major elections in Taiwan, and now that it has had a taste of it, it will only become more audacious.
This is the greatest threat to Taiwan’s democracy at the moment.
With China doing its best to control major elections in Taiwan, Taiwanese cannot elect wise, capable leaders, and instead were saddled with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), a leader veteran singer Jenny Tseng (甄妮) recently referred to as “incompetent,” and whom the Economist wrote had gained an international reputation as a “bumbler.”
It is unfortunate enough that we should have a fool at the helm, but even more damaging are his unfettered fascination with China and how he is being enticed by its siren song, rather than setting a course for the open seas beyond, putting the nation in real danger of being dashed against the rocks.
Ma is in an entirely different position to Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying (梁振英). Leung has no choice but to obey the Chinese authorities; it is part of the system in which he operates. Ma, however, is driven instead by his preoccupation with his historical legacy, and is not thinking about making good on his presidential election campaign promises or improving the lot of Taiwanese. He is forging ahead on the same path, convinced that he still enjoys the long-since-evaporated mandate of the electorate, and is leading Taiwan to potentially grievous damage. He even still harbors the fantasy of meeting Xi on equal terms, so we have to be very wary of what he is capable of doing for the remainder of his term.
The umbrella revolution made it all too clear that Hong Kongers do not want to be just another Chinese city, and are resolved to saving the Hong Kong they know and love. The specifics of the movement — mobilizing citizens to save themselves, trying for a democratic revolution, seeking social justice and not trusting the Chinese Communist Party, together with the idealism and energy of the young generation — match those of the Sunflower movement perfectly.
In facing China, Hong Kong is reluctant to be locked up in China’s totalitarian cage, and Taiwan risks marginalization. The Hong Kong Federation of Students says that it refuses to accept China’s plans for Hong Kong, and that it can succeed if the citizens are committed to the task.
Taiwanese are in a similar situation to that of Hong Kongers. They could learn from the commitment and resolve they are showing.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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