Several years ago, the government started to hold different elections on the same date to reduce costs. Two years ago, it chose to delay the legislative elections so they could be integrated with the presidential election. Some type of election is now held every two years.
Since all officials are elected to four-year terms, the presidential and legislative elections will be followed by local government elections two years later.
After the local government elections are held on Nov. 29, the presidential and legislative elections will then take place in 2016.
Taiwan no longer holds elections every year as could happen in the past.
As central and local elections now alternate, the local elections following the presidential election take on a quality similar to the midterm elections in the US.
In the US system, midterm elections are held near the midpoint of the four-year presidential term, offering voters an opportunity to express their approval or disapproval of the president’s performance. Since the results of the midterm elections are unrelated to a change in the White House, voters are able to use these elections to send a message to the president.
In the 25 US midterm elections that have been held over the past century, US voters supported the opposition camp 22 times, to warn incumbent presidents that they had to adjust their policies.
Even though former US president Franklin Roosevelt was very popular, his party only won the midterm elections once — during his first term. Former US president Ronald Reagan failed to save his party in both midterm elections during his presidency, despite his high popularity.
Based on these precedents, almost every observer believes that US President Barack Obama’s Democratic Party is unlikely to win the midterm elections being held in November.
Since Taiwan is following the US’ example, with local elections coming in the middle of a presidential term, many people believe that Taiwanese voters will follow in the steps of US voters.
Although Obama’s approval rating stands at 41 percent, many people believe it will be difficult for his party to maintain all its seats in this November’s elections; since President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) approval ratings are only slightly above 20 percent at the moment, his Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is likely to face an even greater challenge.
In US midterm elections over the past century, former US president Bill Clinton was the only president whose party was able to remain undefeated during his second term, thanks to the economic upswing the US experienced at the time.
At present, Taiwan’s economic indicators are at a low point and winning local elections in Ma’s second term will be as hard for Ma’s party as trying to defeat gravity.
Of course, whether Taiwan’s county and city elections really are equal to the US’ midterm elections is still up for debate. Although the US’ midterm elections are not a presidential election, their main focus is the US Senate and House of Representatives, and perhaps voters pay greater attention to national policies.
When a president performs poorly, voters naturally tend to support the opposition camp, which is responsible for monitoring the president.
However, Taiwan’s county and city elections are unrelated to national policy and voters cannot use the elections to force the president to change policies. In addition, voters might be unwilling to betray their party loyalties, which could mean that the midterm election effect that occurs in the US might not necessarily occur here.
However, if we take party structures into consideration, Ma’s performance, which has not been very good, might still have a negative effect on the KMT in the elections.
US parties adopt a system of separation of powers and the party branches in each state operate independently, which means that the administrative system might be unable to control the party caucus. This could slightly reduce the president’s impact on the midterm election results.
Taiwan’s parties are Leninist-style structures, with a highly centralized power, and grassroots voters’ favorable impression of local KMT candidates could therefore be offset by Ma, who also serves as KMT chairman.
However, if the grassroots were to abandon the KMT to express their discontent with the party chairman, the situation would be unfavorable to the ruling party.
The unification-versus- independence issue has always been a key factor affecting the choices of Taiwanese voters, but this issue is not highlighted in local elections. Since the issue is excluded from this November’s elections, voters are even more free to express their opinions about the central government’s performance through their ballot.
The fundamental nature of Taiwan’s county and city elections differs from the US midterm elections, but it will still be difficult for the KMT to completely avoid the midterm election curse.
Yang Tai-shuenn is a professor in the Graduate School of Political Science at Chinese Culture University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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