Be cautious, but not afraid
Taiwan is similar to Ukraine in the split of state recognition, but quite different in international political status. Russia invaded Crimea with the excuse of protecting their citizens living abroad. They are welcomed by Crimeans who favor Russia. This is almost identical to people in Taiwan who favor unification with China.
However, Taiwan and Ukraine are not the same. First, Ukraine is a member country of the UN and Taiwan is not. Second, if there were riots or societal turbulence in Taiwan, China could not easily troop in right away, regardless of its 2005 antisecession law, which does not have any legal basis under international law. It would directly challenge the US’ Taiwan Relations Act, authorized by the San Francisco Peace Treaty.
Under the peace treaty, the US became the principal occupying power of Taiwan after World War II.
China had tried to enter Taiwan under the guise of assisting victims after Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Even pro-Beijing President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) expressed support for China. However, it was the US rescue team that landed and helped the victims.
One day, if China is insane and getting crazy to invade Taiwan, it will face a more tenacious condemnation and sanctioning from the international community, including Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Australia and the US. Do not forget, they are witness and supervisor of the San Francisco Peace Treaty. Also, it might trigger independence claims from Tibet and Xinjiang, and accelerate the crackdown of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
So, as Taiwanese, we must take the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a serious lesson, but we do not need to fear China’s intimidation and threats. Those who favor unification are welcomed by China: They should move to the PRC and leave Taiwan alone.
John Hsieh
Hayward, California
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