Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new term is just beginning, but it increasingly looks like the beginning of the end. Whenever Russia’s people pour into the streets en masse, as they currently are doing, from that point on, things never work out well for the authorities.
In 1917, Russian Emperor Nicholas II had to abdicate in the wake of mass street protests, clearing the way for the Bolshevik Revolution. In 1991, the Soviet Union — then seemingly an unbreakable monolith — collapsed in just a few months. Hundreds of thousands went into the streets to confront the hardline coup against then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika.
Now it is Putin’s turn. Moscow boasts Occupy Abai, modeled on the Occupy Wall Street movement in the US (and located on a boulevard next to a statue of Kazakh poet Abai Kunanbaev, whose work has gone from regional obscurity to one of the top Russian Internet downloads in a month). Other cities are witnessing protests as well, all echoing the same call: Putin must go.
Russians are famously patient and slow to rebel. And who would blame them? If protests have turned out badly for Russian governments over the centuries, they have ended even more disastrously for the protesters. In 1917, liberation from absolute monarchy ushered in an even more despotic form of absolutism. After 1991, then Russian president Boris Yeltsin’s unruly privatization reduced millions of people to penury and elevated a corrupt oligarchy into virtual rulership.
However, despite being well aware of their history, once Russians turn on the man at the top, they do not stop until he is out.
History debunks Putin’s myth that the majority of the country supports him because they want “stability” and that the protests, headed by “Western stooges,” are about to subside.
They will not abate and the appointment of Igor Kholmanskikh — a tank factory foreman who had offered to come to Moscow with a burly cohort of his fellow assembly-line workers to defend Putin’s regime — to rule the vast Ural region will not scare them. Soft power has the upper hand today and tanks cannot shut down the Internet.
In nominating his new Cabinet (which he deemed so important that he could not attend the G8 summit), Putin’s Soviet origins could not be more obvious. Former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev used to have his culture and agriculture ministers swap places, as if — bound by the word “culture” — they were one and the same field of expertise. Putin’s new Cabinet is a similar reshuffling of the incompetent with the unqualified.
This debunks another myth — that Putin, now back in charge, will abandon his vulgar anti-Western rhetoric and become a reformer, understanding that only a democratic Russia can maintain its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The reason of course that he will not embrace reform is that he cannot, because that old truism — absolute power corrupts absolutely — has proven itself once more. After more than a decade in power, Russia’s leaders are no longer capable of pursuing better policies. Their personal interests and riches, are too dependent on maintaining the status quo.
Of course, Russia has seen this pattern before as well. I will never forget what my great-grandmother Nina used to say about the corrupting nature of power in our own family.
“Regrettably, the Khrushchev of 1962 wasn’t the Khrushchev of 1956,” she said.