In international politics, nations are either at peace or at war. Even with the end of the Cold War, in the age of globalization, the possibility of conflicts of one type or the other flaring up remains a preoccupation for nations, even if all-out war is kept at bay by the presence of nuclear deterrents and mutual reliance on trade. Cooperation is also important, because competition in its absence has undesirable consequences, including the spread of narcotics, climate change, the disintegration of the financial order, the erection of trade barriers and impediments to the fight against terrorism. If an outbreak of hostilities is to be prevented, some sort of cooperative understanding has to be reached. And indeed, powerful countries do work together behind the scenes on important issues. Look at Afghanistan and Iraq, the nuclear issue in North Korea and Iran, and most recently the Libyan conflict.
Prior to the 1980s, Taiwanese politicians sought to solve the cross-strait issue through non-peaceful means. Since then, the nation’s political leaders — both in opposition and in government — have changed tack. In his 1995 “Six Points” statement, then--president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) called for talks to end the state of hostility between Taiwan and China to show the world that Chinese people on either side of the Taiwan Strait were above political divisions. The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) 1999 “Resolution on Taiwan’s Future” (台灣前途決議文) broached the idea of engaging the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in a comprehensive dialogue to “establish a framework for peace.” Then-president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), who was starting his second term in office, also called for talks with the Chinese communists to establish a dynamic mutual framework for peace and stability. Clearly, whatever interpretation politicians have regarding the nature of Taiwan’s status and regardless of the fact that these are sure to be used as ammunition for mudslinging in the current presidential election campaign, any attempt to formally establish peaceful relations through negotiations or talks with Beijing will later return to inform the choices of policymakers in Taiwan.
As far as the elections are concerned, for purely strategic -considerations, “peace” has become something of a dirty word. Several observers, at home and abroad, have said that Taiwan, while reluctant to explore a peace pact, is not prepared, psychologically or logistically, for the possibility of war. It has instead taken the attitude that relying on the US or Japan is enough, or the belief — completely unfounded — that Beijing will bend over backward to ensure that peace is maintained. On the one hand, Taiwan is reluctant to take the initiative and prepare itself for an outbreak of hostilities, but on the other, it runs from any suggestion of agreements or negotiations. It has reached a point where regardless of who is in government, it has become progressively more difficult for Taiwan to influence the situation, given the rather poor hand it has been dealt. Its only hope for peace is for Beijing to either become distracted by domestic unrest or restrained by other powerful nations. However, China is actually quite stable and its fortunes are very much tied up with those of other major powers for better or for worse. This being the case, the suggestion that Taiwan should be “abandoned,” which has been broached on several occasions recently, starts to take on rather disturbing overtones.
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