Croatia may have received the green light to join the EU, but analysts warn that the other Balkan states are a long way off from entering the 27-nation bloc.
The recommendation from the European Commission to allow Zagreb to join the union in mid-2013 was followed closely by its Balkans neighbors.
They all aspire to join the EU, but for them, progress has been slow.
Their societies are still weakened by the ethnic tensions and volatile politics, a legacy of the 1990s wars that tore apart the former Yugoslavia. Consequently, Brussels is demanding major reforms.
The Balkan states are only half-way from their wartime past to their goal of EU membership, said Jacques Rupnik, a specialist in the region.
“We should not think that things are settled because the risk of another war was evaded. That is premature,” said Rupnic, a senior researcher at the Centre for International Studies and Research in Paris’ Science Po university.
Potential risks in the region included a “surge of ethnic polarization” between Albanians and Macedonians in Macedonia, he said.
The situation in Bosnia remained “completely blocked,” he added.
Rupnik also highlighted recent remarks by Serbian politicians calling for a partition of Kosovo in which the Serb-majority southern part would return to Belgrade’s control.
In 2003, at the Thessaloniki Summit in Greece the EU said all Balkan countries had “a European perspective.” However, eight years on, their progress has been varied.
With the arrest last month of the former Bosnian Serb army chief Ratko Mladic, Serbia hopes to make up ground and get its candidacy status in December, along with a date for the opening of accession talks.
They do not want to see enlargement fatigue among EU member states lead to a long pause between allowing Zagreb to join and getting started with Serbia.
One European diplomatic source, who preferred to remain anonymous, said Belgrade was on target for its candidacy status, even if a lot needed to be done if they were to get a date for the opening talks as well.
After the Mladic arrest, Serbia needed to “continue in the same vein” on three fronts, the source said.
First, they had to track down and arrest of the last remaining war crimes fugitive sought by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia: Croatian Serb political leader Goran Hadzic.
Second, Serbia should push ahead with much needed reforms, especially of the justice system.
A nomination procedure that met EU standards should be put in place to replace judges.
Third, Belgrade had to be able to show concrete results in its dialogue with Kosovo, the source said.
According to this account then, there is no question of the EU letting up pressure on Serbia to reform.
The tiny Adriatic state of Montenegro has already gained EU candidate status and hopes to open accession talks in December.
Macedonia, a candidate since 2005, has yet to start the talks: Greece has blocked Skopje’s entry to both the EU and NATO over a dispute about its name.
EU enlargement commissioner Stefan Fuele said on Friday that the European Commission “might propose not only the candidacy status, but also the start of accession talks” for certain Balkan countries and Macedonia maybe among them.
“We hope that when the name [issue] will be resolved, there will be a momentum in favor of it,” Fuele said in Brussels.
Bringing up the rear are Albania, engulfed in a political show of force between the authorities and the opposition; Kosovo, whose independence Belgrade still refuses to recognize; and Bosnia, whose government institutions have been blocked for months.
Jean-Dominique Giuliani of the Robert Schuman Foundation, a European think-tank, said the time had come for the EU be more assertive in the Balkans.
In Bosnia, for example, Brussels should “bang its fist on the table,” Giuliani said, to get the country out of its political impasse, caused by continuing tensions between the different ethnic groups.
“The European Union is condemned to succeed in the Balkans,” Rupnik said.
Brussels’ credibility depended on it, he added.
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