The US-Japan containment of the passage of Chinese submarines through the West Pacific island chains has seen a new development. According to the Tokyo Shimbun on Jan. 13, the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) has defined the waters in the triangular area connecting Tokyo, Guam and Taiwan as the “TGT Triangle.” The two countries plan to tighten underwater surveillance within this area, which lies between the first island chain linking Tokyo, Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines and the second island chain linking Tokyo, Bonin Islands and Guam.
The tightening of US-Japan underwater surveillance is a result of the growing difficulty in tracing Chinese submarines. According to the research and observations of Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, over the past five years, the number of Chinese submarines carrying long-distance cruise missiles has increased more than 30 times, although the US and Japan only have made such information public fewer than five times.
A rough estimate implies that they have failed to precisely monitor more than 70 percent of submarine activities. One piece of information that proves this was a Dec. 31 report in the Sankei Shimbun that the JMSDF had found that a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine had once again broken through the first island chain in February 2009, between Miyako Island and Yonaguni Island, without Japan detecting a clear navigation path.
Also, after North Korea’s small submarine sank the Cheonan, a South Korean warship last year, the US on several occasions sent warships to participate in South Korea’s military drills to strengthen the latter’s anti-submarine capacity. However, some South Korean naval officials have questioned the effectiveness of the US’ high-tech anti-submarine system in shallow waters. The reason for this is that the research and development of the US system doesn’t keep up with the qualitative and quantitative changes in China’s submarines.
China’s third AIP-equipped Yuan-class submarine is so advanced that it is difficult to detect and Beijing is currently developing a next-generation undetectable submarine.
In response, the US and Japan are accelerating their joint development of sensitive sonar systems and anti-submarine tactics. Last year, Japan also decided to increase the number of its submarines from 16 to 22 and to build an aircraft carrier-like destroyer that can carry nine anti-submarine helicopters. In its new five-year defense buildup plan starting this year, it has added one more -helicopter--carrying destroyer and 10 P1 patrol planes.
Looking back at Taiwan’s anti-submarine capacity, the two, almost 70-year-old, Guppy-class submarines almost don’t dive anymore and only function as surface warships to avoid accidents. The two Chienlung (劍龍) class submarines, modeled on the Netherlands’ Zwaardvis-class, have almost reached their 25-year service limit. Furthermore, no structural renewals or system upgrades have been carried out.
In recent years, large numbers of senior submarine officers have retired, causing a lack of personnel and skills. In addition, both ships and submarines employ anti-submarine strategies and tactics that are more than a dozen years old. Today, the two Chienlung-class submarines are Taiwan’s only subs with actual warfare capacity, but since they have to be used for all training tasks, they are being overused and worn down.
During the Navy’s annual Haisha (Shark, 海鯊) exercise in the waters outside Greater Kaohsiung’s Zuoying on Feb. 27 last year, a joint anti--submarine detachment detected an unidentified object underwater at 11am. Planes and warships constantly traced the object until 6pm. Over the next three days, the detachment commander, Naval Fleet Command and Navy Command Headquarters all made inconsistent public announcements on the incident and they were unclear as to whether the object was a submarine. This is another piece of evidence.
The submarines are used to play the role of an imaginary enemy in peacetime to assist the training of troops on surface ships or in the air, but judging from the current quality and quantity of Taiwan’s submarines, they are unable to fulfill this role. Although the 12 P-3C anti--submarine planes purchased from the US will soon arrive, there may be no submarines used in future Haisha drills. How will the Navy go “shark hunting” then?
It was unusual for the JMSDF to include Taiwan in the “TGT Triangle” of strengthened regular underwater surveillance. First, to make up for weaknesses at the end of the first island chain, Japan made the concrete decision to station troops and set up military facilities on Yonaguni Island to strengthen intelligence and anti-submarine surveillance. Second, the deployment implies that Taiwan is the weakest anti-submarine link in the island chain and that the US and Japan would rather remedy that weakness themselves. Taiwan’s overall anti-submarine capacity is likely to be excluded from the US-Japan force as our capacity rapidly declines.
Wang Jyh-perng is an associate research fellow at the Association for Managing Defense and Strategies.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康), former chairman of Broadcasting Corp of China and leader of the “blue fighters,” recently announced that he had canned his trip to east Africa, and he would stay in Taiwan for the recall vote on Saturday. He added that he hoped “his friends in the blue camp would follow his lead.” His statement is quite interesting for a few reasons. Jaw had been criticized following media reports that he would be traveling in east Africa during the recall vote. While he decided to stay in Taiwan after drawing a lot of flak, his hesitation says it all: If
When Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) first suggested a mass recall of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators, the Taipei Times called the idea “not only absurd, but also deeply undemocratic” (“Lai’s speech and legislative chaos,” Jan. 6, page 8). In a subsequent editorial (“Recall chaos plays into KMT hands,” Jan. 9, page 8), the paper wrote that his suggestion was not a solution, and that if it failed, it would exacerbate the enmity between the parties and lead to a cascade of revenge recalls. The danger came from having the DPP orchestrate a mass recall. As it transpired,
Sitting in their homes typing on their keyboards and posting on Facebook things like, “Taiwan has already lost its democracy,” “The Democratic Progressive Party is a party of green communists,” or “President William Lai [賴清德] is a dictator,” then turning around and heading to the convenience store to buy a tea egg and an iced Americano, casually chatting in a Line group about which news broadcast was more biased this morning — are such people truly clear about the kind of society in which they are living? This is not meant to be sarcasm or criticism, but an exhausted honesty.
Elbridge Colby, America’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is the most influential voice on defense strategy in the Second Trump Administration. For insight into his thinking, one could do no better than read his thoughts on the defense of Taiwan which he gathered in a book he wrote in 2021. The Strategy of Denial, is his contemplation of China’s rising hegemony in Asia and on how to deter China from invading Taiwan. Allowing China to absorb Taiwan, he wrote, would open the entire Indo-Pacific region to Chinese preeminence and result in a power transition that would place America’s prosperity