Having gained the world’s attention by briefly waging war on South Korean territory last month, North Korea has reverted, for now, to a more familiar tactic — a war of nerves fed by vitriolic propaganda, threats and tantrums, underpinned by a policy of studied unpredictability.
Pyongyang maintained its confrontational drumbeat this week.
Rodong Sinmun, the main party organ, declared enhanced US-South Korean military co-operation to be “nothing but treachery, escalating the tension and bringing the dark clouds of a nuclear war to hang over the Korean Peninsula.”
And Tuesday’s disclosure by South Korea that the North may have built up to four additional facilities for nuclear weapons-related uranium enrichment is unlikely to calm the febrile atmosphere. The intelligence suggests the regime is hell-bent on maximizing its nuclear capabilities, notwithstanding any future disarmament talks.
In this tense game of -diplomatic-military poker, South Korea is not even the North’s principal adversary. Kim Jong-il is now blithely defying all the major regional actors — the US, China, Russia and Japan — while actively exploiting differences between them. It makes little difference whether his aim is recognition and security guarantees; economic and financial assistance; or the succession of his son. Kim is playing off the great powers against each other to see what he can get out of them. The result is virtual diplomatic meltdown.
Just look at what has happened since last month’s bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island. China, the North’s only influential ally, has come under strong US pressure to pull its supposed client into line. China’s perceived failure to do so is straining relations with Washington. US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg visited Beijing today carrying the message: China must do more, fast.
Resentful of such criticism, but simultaneously alarmed at the North’s unruly behavior (which it says it cannot ultimately control), China sent a top envoy, State Councilor Dai Bingguo (戴秉國), to Pyongyang last week.
In a bland statement bordering on meaninglessness, the foreign ministry claimed today the visit achieved consensus: “The two sides believe that parties should keep calm and exercise restraint, take a responsible attitude to avoid further escalation of tensions and play a constructive role in safeguarding peace and stability on the peninsula.”
China insists a resumption of the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program is the best way forward. Pyongyang would probably support this if the negotiations, broken off last year, restarted without preconditions. The US, Japan and South Korea, on the other hand, oppose rewarding Kim’s “bad behavior,” and are demanding a range of prior assurances. So the impasse persists — and the North has no incentive to change its ways.
Russia, a party to the talks, is hardly doing any better. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his North Korean counterpart, Pak Ui-chun, yesterday that Moscow was deeply concerned by recent events.
Last month’s attack “deserves condemnation,” he said.
But then Lavrov grew placatory, agreeing that US-South Korean military exercises were inflaming tensions, a view shared by China.
For his part, Pak, unfazed by this mild reprimand, told the Russian news agency Interfax that the “hostile and confrontational policy” of the US and South Korea justified “strengthening our defense potential with a focus on nuclear deterrent forces.”