In 1996, China threatened Taiwan by launching weeklong missile tests off its coastline, designed to intimidate Taiwanese and influence the presidential election. Even though China warned the US that any intervention to defend Taiwan could lead to war and possibly even a nuclear exchange, Washington unflinchingly dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups to protect Taiwan, demonstrating its commitment to the region. It is worth noting that one of the carriers, the USS Nimitz, sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
However, 14 years after the Taiwan Strait Crisis, the security situation in Northeast Asia is markedly different.
The US and South Korea recently held a joint naval exercise, mobilizing 8,000 troops, 20 ships and submarines — including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington and 200 planes — in the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan in response to the torpedoing of a South Korean naval ship, believed by the US and South Korea to be the work of Pyongyang.
Although the US has said that the maneuvers were aimed at sending a strong message to Pyongyang that aggression will not be tolerated, China, North Korea’s adamant supporter, has strongly protested the drills, saying its national interest will be damaged if a US aircraft carrier is deployed in the Yellow Sea, which it views as its “backyard.”
Instead of ignoring these objections, the US made an unprecedented strategic U-turn, deciding to relocate some of the drills away from the sensitive Yellow Sea to the Sea of Japan. Moreover, the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will not now enter the Yellow Sea. This conciliatory gesture not only shocked many security experts in South Korea and Japan, but also carries implications for Taiwan.
Clearly, China’s increasingly assertive posture toward the Western Pacific has significantly shifted the military status quo that has been maintained in Northeast Asia since World War II. Ten Chinese naval ships violated Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) around Okinawa in April, another two warships passed close to Okinawa on their way to the Pacific early this month and Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi (楊潔篪) criticized US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s remarks at the ASEAN Regional Forum about resolving disputes in the South China Sea multilaterally as an “attack” on China. Beijing’s strong words and “saber-rattling” perfectly reflect its mindset.
Even though under international law it is legitimate for the US and South Korea to conduct military drills in international waters, Beijing believes this could threaten its sovereignty and therefore considers it unacceptable. Accordingly, China is now a pivotal consideration for the US when planning maneuvers in the area. Moreover, by backing off the US might well embolden China to take further action that radically alters the balance of power in Northeast Asia.
The US has repeatedly expressed its concerns over China’s rapid military modernization and lack of transparency, as Beijing’s relentless development of anti-satellite capabilities, quieter submarines, sophisticated mines and particularly the latest anti-ship ballistic missiles — known as “carrier killers” — constitute a credible and physical threat to its neighbors. As China’s economy continues to grow over the coming decade, its military capabilities will become ever more of a concern.
Nowhere is this dramatic change in the security situation more daunting than Taiwan. If a 1996-type crisis happens again, the possibility of outside help would be quite slim, given the US’ new found sensitivitiy to China’s sensibilities, however unreasonable.
For a small country situated between great powers, like Taiwan, it is a good idea to hedge one’s bets by maintaining good relations with Beijing and the US. However, with China accounting for nearly half of Taiwan’s exports, the two economies likely to become increasingly integrated and China’s continued territorial ambitions toward Taiwan, it is clear which side has the advantage.
To prevent the situation from deteriorating further, Taiwan needs to strengthen its ties with security partners like the US and Japan. More importantly, its current pro-China policy needs to change now before it is too late.
Ho-ting Tu is a journalist and writer based in Taipei and also a researcher of cross-strait relations and US foreign policy.
There is much evidence that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is sending soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and is learning lessons for a future war against Taiwan. Until now, the CCP has claimed that they have not sent PLA personnel to support Russian aggression. On 18 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy announced that the CCP is supplying war supplies such as gunpowder, artillery, and weapons subcomponents to Russia. When Zelinskiy announced on 9 April that the Ukrainian Army had captured two Chinese nationals fighting with Russians on the front line with details
On a quiet lane in Taipei’s central Daan District (大安), an otherwise unremarkable high-rise is marked by a police guard and a tawdry A4 printout from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating an “embassy area.” Keen observers would see the emblem of the Holy See, one of Taiwan’s 12 so-called “diplomatic allies.” Unlike Taipei’s other embassies and quasi-consulates, no national flag flies there, nor is there a plaque indicating what country’s embassy this is. Visitors hoping to sign a condolence book for the late Pope Francis would instead have to visit the Italian Trade Office, adjacent to Taipei 101. The death of
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), joined by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), held a protest on Saturday on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei. They were essentially standing for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is anxious about the mass recall campaign against KMT legislators. President William Lai (賴清德) said that if the opposition parties truly wanted to fight dictatorship, they should do so in Tiananmen Square — and at the very least, refrain from groveling to Chinese officials during their visits to China, alluding to meetings between KMT members and Chinese authorities. Now that China has been defined as a foreign hostile force,
On April 19, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) gave a public speech, his first in about 17 years. During the address at the Ketagalan Institute in Taipei, Chen’s words were vague and his tone was sour. He said that democracy should not be used as an echo chamber for a single politician, that people must be tolerant of other views, that the president should not act as a dictator and that the judiciary should not get involved in politics. He then went on to say that others with different opinions should not be criticized as “XX fellow travelers,” in reference to