In 2040/2050, will demographers speak of “the white man’s loneliness” in the way historians once referred to “the white man’s burden” to describe the so-called “imperial responsibilities” of some European nations?
Demography is not an exact science. Countless dire predictions, from that of Malthus to that of the Club of Rome, have been proven wrong. But, according to a recent and very convincing essay published in the magazine Foreign Affairs, a dual demographic and economic trend is taking place that will result in spectacular shifts by the middle of this century. The Western world will represent only 12 percent of the world’s population, with Europeans reduced to 6 percent. (In 1913, a year before the outbreak of World War I, Europe was slightly more populated than China.) Economically, the West will account for around 30 percent of global output — a level that corresponds to Europe’s share in the 18th century and down from 68 percent in 1950.
What we are witnessing can be seen as a return to the past, with the West returning to its old place in the world before the start of China’s long process of historical decline at the beginning of the 19th century. The West’s long period of global dominance is ending, encouraged and accelerated by its own mistakes and irresponsible behavior. We are entering a new historical cycle, in which there will be proportionally fewer Westerners, more Africans and Middle Easterners, and — with greater relevance economically and strategically — many more Asians.
competitive decline
It is with these figures in mind that one must consider US President Barack Obama’s decision not to attend the next EU-US summit that was due to take place in Madrid in May. It would be tempting to use a formula coined during the Cold War to describe the comparative evolution of the US and the USSR and to apply the notion of “competitive decline” to the relationship between the US and Europe. A US that may be undergoing a process of relative if not absolute decline chooses to ignore a Europe that in US eyes is no longer a problem compared with Asia or the Middle East, and that offers little help in finding solutions to the problems that most vex Americans.
In a hasty and excessively provocative manner, some in the US media are starting to speak of Obama as “a second Jimmy Carter” and predict that he will serve only one term. What is more serious is the impression that the US’ political system, with its inability to transcend party divisions and forge national consensus, is increasingly crippled.
The US’ political institutions have aged like the country’s infrastructure. They were devised more than two centuries ago for a mostly agrarian world. Today, they need to be amended and rejuvenated. But that may not be possible, given the sacrosanctity with which many Americans regard the US Constitution.
failure to save planet
As for the EU, the problem is not what will not happen in Madrid. The EU’s problem is much more what happened in Copenhagen last December at the summit to “save the planet,” or what is taking place before our eyes with the challenge to the euro posed by the weakness of some of its member states, most prominently Greece.
In Copenhagen, Europe came with a common and responsible position.
The EU was “showing the way” to other great actors and behaved as the “good pupil” of the world class. The EU was ignored, with the US and China choosing to disagree over its head. Europe must realize that it cannot be seen as a model for anyone if no one takes it seriously as a global actor.
But how can you be taken seriously by others if you do not take yourself seriously? The EU’s new High Representative for external affairs, Baroness Catherine Ashton, tried to justify her failure to go to Haiti in the immediate aftermath of its terrible earthquake by saying, “I am neither a nurse nor a fire person.” Lack of such skills did not keep US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from traveling to the scene of the devastation to show her support and concern.
Confronted with revolutionary demographic and economic transformations, Americans and Europeans should behave in a much more responsible manner. Instead of ignoring the other (the American way) or lamenting a wounded ego (the European way), they should confront the common challenges they face as a result of a globalization process that they are no longer able to master.
Dominique Moisi is a visiting professor at Harvard University.
COPYRIGHT: PROJECT SYNDICATE
A gap appears to be emerging between Washington’s foreign policy elites and the broader American public on how the United States should respond to China’s rise. From my vantage working at a think tank in Washington, DC, and through regular travel around the United States, I increasingly experience two distinct discussions. This divergence — between America’s elite hawkishness and public caution — may become one of the least appreciated and most consequential external factors influencing Taiwan’s security environment in the years ahead. Within the American policy community, the dominant view of China has grown unmistakably tough. Many members of Congress, as
After declaring Iran’s military “gone,” US President Donald Trump appealed to the UK, France, Japan and South Korea — as well as China, Iran’s strategic partner — to send minesweepers and naval forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. When allies balked, the request turned into a warning: NATO would face “a very bad” future if it refused. The prevailing wisdom is that Trump faces a credibility problem: having spent years insulting allies, he finds they would not rally when he needs them. That is true, but superficial, as though a structural collapse could be caused by wounded feelings. Something
Former Taipei mayor and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) founding chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) was sentenced to 17 years in prison on Thursday, making headlines across major media. However, another case linked to the TPP — the indictment of Chinese immigrant Xu Chunying (徐春鶯) for alleged violations of the Anti-Infiltration Act (反滲透法) on Tuesday — has also stirred up heated discussions. Born in Shanghai, Xu became a resident of Taiwan through marriage in 1993. Currently the director of the Taiwan New Immigrant Development Association, she was elected to serve as legislator-at-large for the TPP in 2023, but was later charged with involvement
Out of 64 participating universities in this year’s Stars Program — through which schools directly recommend their top students to universities for admission — only 19 filled their admissions quotas. There were 922 vacancies, down more than 200 from last year; top universities had 37 unfilled places, 40 fewer than last year. The original purpose of the Stars Program was to expand admissions to a wider range of students. However, certain departments at elite universities that failed to meet their admissions quotas are not improving. Vacancies at top universities are linked to students’ program preferences on their applications, but inappropriate admission
RSS