Would voters in Taiwan vote the same way today as they did on March 22? Some, especially in the business sector, are still hopeful. Others are “still not clear.” But already, surely, there are a considerable number of people who would vote differently.
In the news one sees government plans that were expected, many of which are not yet agreed to by China, and others that are not clear. Many more are about what is wrong for Taiwan or what should be done, but that has not had an impact on what the government does. And little political opposition is heard.
In the run-up to the legislative and the presidential elections, Taiwan’s economy was touted as being in poor health and deteriorating, although it was not as bad as it was made out to be. The economy has declined since the new government took over, but much of that was based on global economic changes and not so much government policies.
Despite the rather large number of people concerned about having a pro-China government, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) continues to move in that direction. In May the government approved reforms allowing greater investments by Taiwanese financial firms in China. The Ministry of Economic Affairs is working on changes in cross-strait trade and economic ties, easing the cap on China-bound investment. That is the first step. Then the government will list some restrictions that prevent companies in certain sectors, such as high-end semiconductors and liquid-crystal displays, from investing in China before allowing Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said Taiwan should be more open and relax its rules on Chinese investment by Taiwanese chipmakers. But Taiwanese semiconductor companies in China have reported losses. They say the market is not as big as they hoped, the Chinese government has abolished several tax benefits for Taiwanese businesspeople and that labor costs are now higher than in Thailand.
More important, however, is the extent to which it will be acceptable to open Taiwan’s expertise on the semiconductor industry to China. Taiwan is a world leader in the industry, with a large number of expert employees. It surpasses China now, but moving these experts and their knowledge across the Taiwan Strait could quickly change that. There is also the interest of the US in controlling exports to specific countries, including China.
At the same time, the Straits Exchange Foundation chairman is expected to pursue “common party” policy with China, though the timing is not clear. Should it be discussed, the purpose would be to create a free-trade agreement, liberalize cross-strait trade and develop an economic coordination system that will establish economic integration and help protect Taiwanese business interests in China. The latter would be similar to that of Beijing and Hong Kong, and could cause problems within Taiwan.
It seems that every day there are reports of Ma or other government leaders promising that more changes will be made toward China, mainly economically but also politically. Many of these ideas are being voiced by those who believe they will gain from the changes, but the government also believes moving closer to China would be best for Taiwan. But there are also reports that moving in that direction may not be best for Taiwan for a variety of reasons. At the same time, economic conditions worldwide are causing countries to tighten their own economic policies, including China and the US.
Under these circumstances, is it wise to move forward and make agreements with China on matters that will be changing continuously?
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
There is much evidence that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is sending soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and is learning lessons for a future war against Taiwan. Until now, the CCP has claimed that they have not sent PLA personnel to support Russian aggression. On 18 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy announced that the CCP is supplying war supplies such as gunpowder, artillery, and weapons subcomponents to Russia. When Zelinskiy announced on 9 April that the Ukrainian Army had captured two Chinese nationals fighting with Russians on the front line with details
On a quiet lane in Taipei’s central Daan District (大安), an otherwise unremarkable high-rise is marked by a police guard and a tawdry A4 printout from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating an “embassy area.” Keen observers would see the emblem of the Holy See, one of Taiwan’s 12 so-called “diplomatic allies.” Unlike Taipei’s other embassies and quasi-consulates, no national flag flies there, nor is there a plaque indicating what country’s embassy this is. Visitors hoping to sign a condolence book for the late Pope Francis would instead have to visit the Italian Trade Office, adjacent to Taipei 101. The death of
By now, most of Taiwan has heard Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) threats to initiate a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet. His rationale is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government’s investigation into alleged signature forgery in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) recall campaign constitutes “political persecution.” I sincerely hope he goes through with it. The opposition currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, so the initiation of a no-confidence motion and its passage should be entirely within reach. If Chiang truly believes that the government is overreaching, abusing its power and targeting political opponents — then
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), joined by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), held a protest on Saturday on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei. They were essentially standing for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is anxious about the mass recall campaign against KMT legislators. President William Lai (賴清德) said that if the opposition parties truly wanted to fight dictatorship, they should do so in Tiananmen Square — and at the very least, refrain from groveling to Chinese officials during their visits to China, alluding to meetings between KMT members and Chinese authorities. Now that China has been defined as a foreign hostile force,
RSS