So far, events have proven the optimists to be correct. The dialogue between the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) has resumed. As the basis, the Taiwanese side has only pledged adherence to the so-called “1992 consensus” and Beijing has not objected to President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) “each side has its own interpretation” formulation, even though the resulting association with “one China” is vague.
SEF Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) held meetings in Beijing on June 12 and June 13 with his counterpart, ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林). The two signed agreements concerning weekend charter flights and Chinese tourists. True, the former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government did most of the work on both agreements, but it was not until the political climate had changed with Ma’s victory in the March presidential election that drafts could be turned into signed texts.
The two sides are off to a good start, but it is only a start. At this early stage, the two sides should be pleased with their initial achievements, but they should remember that they have embarked on a long and complicated process of re-engagement. Expectations are high and pitfalls exist. The recent experience of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak demonstrates what happens when a leader ignores pitfalls and cannot meet expectations.
By its nature, any process of re-engagement must be gradual and interactive.
Over the last 15 years mutual trust and shared understanding between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have declined seriously. There was a downward spiral of mutual insecurity as each side believed increasingly that the other threatened its fundamental interests. Each adopted policies based on those fears. China built up its military to deter what it believed were Taiwan’s separatist schemes. Taiwanese leaders intensified claims of sovereignty as a defense against, as they saw it, looming domination by Beijing. Each side’s moves intensified the other’s defense mechanisms.
Now that Ma has taken the stage and dialogue has resumed with good initial results, the atmosphere is certainly better. But it does not mean that the mistrust of the last 15 years has disappeared with the Chiang-Chen meeting, and the Vice President Vincent Siew (蕭萬長)-Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and Hu-Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Wu Po-hsiung (吳伯雄) meetings before it.
People’s Liberation Army Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian (馬嘯天) recently warned that “secessionist forces for Taiwan independence will continue with separation movements” and asserted that “the mission of opposing and curbing secessionist activities remains strenuous.” Taiwan lives under the cloud of China’s growing military capabilities, particularly ballistic missiles.
If the two sides are to reduce mistrust and increase mutual understanding, it will occur not through some “grand bargain,” but as a result of a gradual, step-by-step process where each side’s initiatives do not entail substantial risk and the other’s positive response encourages momentum.
The current interactive process will also succeed if Beijing and Taipei agree, at least informally, on what the goal is. Having an objective gives the two sides focus and a sense of purpose. On democratic Taiwan, the existence of a goal gives the public a benchmark with which to evaluate the performance of the Ma administration. Every time the two sides successfully take a step toward that objective, they gain more confidence that more can be achieved.
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