Super Typhoon Sinlaku is one of the most dangerous typhoons in years to threaten Taiwan, with destructive winds predicted for the northeast in particular, where the storm’s relatively large eye could pass close to land or even clip the coast.
This storm has been meandering in this direction for many days, during which time it has amassed an enormous amount of water and built enough strength to be a considerable worry for coastal communities and businesses, as well as farmers across the nation.
Over the last few years a number of typhoons have fizzled as they crashed into Taiwan’s high-altitude landscape. While such anticlimactic storms are always welcome, they also allow some to grow complacent over the dangers typhoons pose, including the immediate post-storm threats of landslides, mudslides and rivers and streams that burst their banks.
At 6:15pm last night the Central Weather Bureau reported sustained winds of 184kph gusting to 227kph — the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, similar to Hurricane Katrina when it made landfall on the US Gulf Coast in 2005.
The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, however, last night predicted intensification as Sinlaku nears — though on the balance of evidence it was not expecting landfall — with winds of 115 knots gusting to 140 knots (213kph-260kph), equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane.
Wind speeds and storm categories may seem meaningless to some. An extract from the National Hurricane Center, however, clarifies what can occur in a storm of this ferocity: “More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.”
In Taiwan, such damage is compounded by the violent flow of water and debris from catchment areas full of unstable riverbeds and steep hillsides.
It is likely that the president will convene an emergency typhoon task force. For such occasions, the president and accompanying staff wear dramatically colored windbreakers and have important-looking name plates placed on their desks. This has become a bipartisan tradition as officials attempt to look as if they have matters under control.
But the reality is that prudent preparations for storms of this size — maintenance and testing of floodgates in the week before a storm hits, preliminary evacuations of senior citizens and young children from remote communities and exposed coastal and flood-prone towns — have not been taking place.
This is especially objectionable given the tendency of government officials in recent months to carpet forecasters at the weather bureau for not predicting the trajectories of storms to the nearest kilometer and rainfall to the nearest millimeter.
By and large the squat and ugly concrete structures that dominate rural architecture here serve residents well when typhoons and earthquakes strike, thus relieving the government of a degree of responsibility when things do go wrong. With luck, this will also be the case on this occasion.
But storms of the size of Sinlaku rarely hit Taiwan; the last comparable storm in size and proximity possibly being Typhoon Herb, which caused considerable damage in 1996, leaving 51 people dead and 22 missing. The utmost caution is therefore necessary this weekend, particularly for those for whom early evacuation might have been prudent or necessary and those in or near the strike zone.
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