Thu, May 10, 2007 - Page 8 News List

Kurt Campbell on Taiwan: The silence in the US-JApan 2+2 statement

By Kurt Campbell

The best interpretation for the oversight -- and indeed the most likely explanation -- is that the central point around the emerging US-Japan consensus on the maintenance of stability across the Taiwan Strait had already been established and further elaboration was unnecessary and seen to be potentially counterproductive.

Some of the most powerful concepts in modern diplomacy have been articulated only once. It is not unlikely that the matter of a convergent US-Japan position on Taiwan Strait stability may not get much further explanation in public documents such as these.

It is also the case that Japan seeks closer ties (or at least less tension) with China at this time given all the recent turmoil in relations, and few things stir more Chinese suspicion and outrage than Japanese proclamations on Taiwan. So it is not unreasonable to assume that Japanese diplomats are seeking to send a somewhat conciliatory message to Chinese friends in one area -- the Taiwan Strait -- while moving ahead expeditiously in other areas like constitutional reform and military modernization -- issues that raise concerns in Beijing, but to a lesser degree. In this sense, Japanese foreign policy and national security players are mindful of the balancing act they are trying to play in Asia and with China in particular. That is, to take steps to become a more "normal" country in the arena of national security and defense but still trying to do so without unduly alarming the neighbors at the same time. Alas, the persistent historical commentary coming from Japanese leaders about wartime memories simply exacerbates these issues.

Finally, it is also true that China has put its enormous influence behind the recent momentum in six-party talks with North Korea, and US diplomats are ever mindful of avoiding what can be seen as potential flashpoints in Sino-US relations.

The entire US strategy toward North Korea requires continuing pressure from China on Pyongyang in the background and this is well understood at the State Department.

In the current environment -- with Taiwan providing disappointments in the defense arena and concerns over domestic provocations and China rendering quiet assistance in ongoing nuclear talks -- the US team on Asia probably determined that this was not the time to amplify its position regarding cross-strait matters.

Kurt Campbell is the CEO and co-founder of the Center for a New American Security in Washington.

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