China could have its first aircraft carrier battle group composed of 11 warships in place by 2020, a high-ranking official from the Ministry of National Defense told a recent symposium hosted by the Institute for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies to discuss the purchase of diesel-electric submarines. His remark is probably an understatement and the ministry has seriously underestimated China's capability to develop and deploy submarines.
The ministry estimated that China will have two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines in this planned aircraft carrier battle group. Named the "Shang-class" by NATO, Type 093 is a refined model of the Russian Victor-III class and an engineering project complementary to the construction of China's Type 094 Jin-class nuclear-powered guided ballistic missile submarines. Deploying two nuclear-powered attack submarines in a middle-sized aircraft carrier battle group is adequate.
Over the past decade, China's submarine technology has made huge progress. In addition to its highly developed Type 093, Bei-jing may have more advanced nuclear-powered attack submarines, possibly Type 095, by 2020.
International media reports indicate that China may have completed the design of Type 095 and initiated the first phase of construction. Some believe the hull of Type 095 has been given a Western rather than a Russian design and that the underwater noise level of the engines has been reduced.
The Type 095 may also dopt the sophisticated HY-4 cruise missile with a range of 3,000km. If this type of missile carries a nuclear warhead, it can destroy up to 2km2 of any targeted area.
China is planning to build five Type 095 submarines. If the Type 095 can join its aircraft carrier battle group by 2020, its overall combat capabilities will easily exceed those of Type 093.
The ministry's projection of the make-up of China's aircraft carrier battle group also ignores the great technological progress China has made in building diesel-electric submarines in recent years. After Russia delivered the second batch of eight Russian Kilo-class Type 636 attack submarines to Beijing, China's diesel-electric submarine technology has improved considerably through imitation or technology transfer.
According to a foreign news report, China's Ming-class submarines have begun testing the installation of an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system that operates on liquid oxyhydrogen cells. Moreover, China's navy continues to improve its Type 039 Song-class submarine, which was recently found stalking the USS Kitty Hawk near Okinawa.
In future, all Song-class submarines are likely to be equipped with the AIP system and China will take the initiative to acquire new weapons systems from Russia, including supersonic anti-ship missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, wake-homing torpedoes and supercavitating torpedoes.
Prior to 2020 then, China's fleet of diesel-electric submarines will have become an underwater threat that nations in the Asia-Pacific region cannot ignore. That would constitute a structural change to the the strategic security of both the Taiwan Strait and the first island chain. Such a strategic alteration would put tremendous pressure on Taiwan.
Taiwan's defense capabilities will be unable to deal with these changes single-handedly and the nation cannot simply pin its hopes on the acquisition of a few diesel-electric submarines.
As the most vulnerable and strategically most important link in the first island chain, Taiwan should seek to improve its defense capabilities and strengthen military cooperation with both the US and Japan to deter China's expansionist ambitions.
Ta-chen Cheng is an adjunct assistant professor at Tamkang University.
Translated by Daniel Cheng
An elderly mother and her daughter were found dead in Kaohsiung after having not been seen for several days, discovered only when a foul odor began to spread and drew neighbors’ attention. There have been many similar cases, but it is particularly troubling that some of the victims were excluded from the social welfare safety net because they did not meet eligibility criteria. According to media reports, the middle-aged daughter had sought help from the local borough warden. Although the warden did step in, many services were unavailable without out-of-pocket payments due to issues with eligibility, leaving the warden’s hands
When former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) first took office in 2016, she set ambitious goals for remaking the energy mix in Taiwan. At the core of this effort was a significant expansion of the percentage of renewable energy generated to keep pace with growing domestic and global demands to reduce emissions. This effort met with broad bipartisan support as all three major parties placed expanding renewable energy at the center of their energy platforms. However, over the past several years partisanship has become a major headwind in realizing a set of energy goals that all three parties profess to want. Tsai
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday announced that she would dissolve parliament on Friday. Although the snap election on Feb. 8 might appear to be a domestic affair, it would have real implications for Taiwan and regional security. Whether the Takaichi-led coalition can advance a stronger security policy lies in not just gaining enough seats in parliament to pass legislation, but also in a public mandate to push forward reforms to upgrade the Japanese military. As one of Taiwan’s closest neighbors, a boost in Japan’s defense capabilities would serve as a strong deterrent to China in acting unilaterally in the
Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told a news conference on Jan. 9, in response to China’s latest round of live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait: “India has an abiding interest in peace and stability in the region, in view of our trade, economic, people-to-people and maritime interests. We urge all parties to exercise restraint, avoid unilateral actions and resolve issues peacefully without threat or use of force.” The statement set a firm tone at the beginning of the year for India-Taiwan relations, and reflects New Delhi’s recognition of shared interests and the strategic importance of regional stability. While India
RSS