Tue, Nov 29, 2005 page9

• Sun Tzu would have frowned on Gulf strategy

  A new study by the Pew Research Center suggests that the Iraq war has "led to a revival of isolationist sentiment among the general public"

  • By Richard Halloran
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  The Chinese strategist Sun Tzu (孫子) wrote 2,500 years ago: "Maintaining an army at a distance causes the people to be impoverished."

  The rising cost in blood and treasure of US President George W. Bush's four year incursion into Iraq has generated among Americans a question rooted in Sun Tzu: Is the cost worth it? Increasing numbers of Americans, including scores of military leaders, seem to think not.

  This billowing skepticism suggests a more profound question: Beyond Iraq, have Americans wearied of the burden of worldwide security commitments and deployment of forces that are more extensive than any since the Roman Empire? Are Americans ready to retract them?

  In a word, are the Yankees on the verge of going home?

  If so, the consequences for Asia alone can hardly be imagined. Would China revive the Middle Kingdom that once dominated East Asia? Would Japan return to the militarism of the 1940s? Would India seek to control South Asia? How would the middle powers -- South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan -- ward off the big boys?

  The number of US soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen deployed around the world is imposing.

  Fully one-third of the 1.4 million men and women in the armed forces are posted outside the country, either ashore or afloat, in 136 countries.

  Their operations range from several sergeants on training missions in Latin America or Africa to 169,000 troops in Iraq and 19,000 in Afghanistan. Some are in Central Asia, which is literally halfway around the world. Moreover, this military empire dates back six decades to the end of World War II.

  Today, 69,000 troops are in Germany, 35,000 in Japan, 12,000 in Italy and 11,000 in Britain. In South Korea are 33,000 troops still there 53 years after the Korean War.

  The cost in blood has been intense. In South Korea, Vietnam and the smaller skirmishes such as that in Panama since 1945, more than 82,000 US warriors have suffered battle death. More than three times that number have been wounded. The number killed in Iraq has passed 2,050 and continues to climb.

  Added to this is the cost in treasure. US taxpayers have been asked for US$450 billion for next year's defense budget, which is more than the combined military spending of China, Japan, France and 10 other nations, according to the CIA.

  Against that backdrop, Americans appear to have become impatient with Bush's inability to go beyond platitudes to articulate a visible course with attainable objectives in Iraq.

  Senator John McCain, who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, pointed in a speech to the "growing incantations among Americans that there is no end in sight."

  The senator, who lost the Republican presidential nomination to Bush in 2000, asserted: "If we can't retain the support of the American people, we will have lost this war as soundly as if our forces were defeated on the battlefield."

  It may be too late to rekindle public support. Not only have political activists such as Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq, become more vocal, but defense stalwarts such as Representative John Murtha, a Democrat who was wounded and decorated in Vietnam, have turned against the war.

  Murtha, who has been influential on military matters for many years, said in a speech: "Our military has done everything that has been asked of them, the US cannot accomplish anything further in Iraq militarily. It is time to bring them home."

  Among active and retired military officers runs an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the way the war in Iraq has been fought.

  While abiding by the tradition of staying out of politics, they say privately they are displeased with the absence of strategy, the lack of sufficient troops, and the failure to mobilize the American people for an all-out struggle.

  A new study by the non-partisan Pew Research Center, which is respected for accuracy and balance, suggests the Iraq war has "led to a revival of isolationist sentiment among the general public."

  Pew researchers reported that 42 percent of Americans, the highest percentage in 45 years, say the US should "mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can."

  Among those most critical was a curious combination of religious leaders and scientists.

  It's not likely than many US clergymen or scientists have read Sun Tzu. If they did, they might agree with another one of his pithy observations: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare."

  Richard Halloran is a writer based in Hawaii.
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