The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990, and this year is likely to be the warmest ever. This year, we've gotten a taste of the many kinds of dangers that lie ahead, more extreme hurricanes, massive droughts, forest fires, spreading infectious diseases and floods. The climate is changing, and more is yet to come.
The world's governments will meet in Montreal at the end of November to plot the next steps, including specific measures that the world could adopt if the administration of US President George W. Bush abandoned its willful neglect of this critical issue.
Climate change is equated with "global warming," but much more than warming is involved. The rising concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is leading to more extreme storms, higher-intensity hurricanes, rising ocean levels, melting glaciers and ice sheets, droughts, floods and other climate changes. Even the chemistry of the land and ocean is changing, with the ocean becoming more acidic -- thus threatening coral reefs -- as a result of higher carbon dioxide.
The specific patterns of change are not known precisely, but the risks of continuing on our current global course are widely appreciated. Yet the US has refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, which does little to change the long-term course of events on the planet, since it calls for only small steps up to the year 2012.
Under the terms of the UN treaty on climate change, the signatories -- virtually the whole world -- are to gather each year to discuss the treaty's implementation. The conference in Montreal -- the 11th such meeting -- should look beyond 2012, so that the world gets onto a safe and sustainable long-term climate path.
The actions that are needed are difficult to introduce, because they go to the heart of the world's use of energy, particularly its use of fossil fuels [coal, oil, and gas], which, when burned, release carbon dioxide -- the key source of rising greenhouse gases -- into the atmosphere. Yet the world economy depends on fossil fuels, and developing countries will need to use more, not less, of them as their economies grow. Even if the world runs out of oil and gas in the coming years, coal will prove to be plentiful, and solid coal can be converted at relatively low cost to liquid fuels for automobiles and other uses.
Unfortunately, clean, renewable energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide, such as wind power and geothermal power, are not yet sufficient. Solar power can be produced on the required scale but is too expensive under current technologies. Nuclear power is relatively cheap, and could be plentiful, but poses huge dangers for increased proliferation of nuclear-weapons materials.
So, fossil fuels are plentiful, but harmful; renewable sources like wind are good for the climate but not plentiful. Solar power is plentiful but not cheap. Nuclear power is plentiful but not safe.
Improved technologies can offer a way out of this bind, but only if we think and act ahead. There are two main kinds of technologies that look most promising. The first is energy conservation through more fuel-efficient vehicles. New hybrid automobiles, pioneered by Toyota, use both gasoline and electric power to boost gasoline efficiency by approximately two-fold. A massive changeover to more fuel-efficient vehicles would make a big difference, especially as the numbers of vehicles on the road soars in China, India, and other developing countries.
The second big technology that could make a major difference is called "carbon capture and storage." The idea is to "capture" the carbon dioxide that is emitted in power plants and other big factories when fossil fuels are burned, thereby preventing it from entering the atmosphere. The captured carbon is then pumped into underground storage sites such as empty oil fields and other suitable locations.
All of the key aspects of the technology -- capturing the carbon dioxide, putting it into pipelines for shipment, and then depositing it underground -- have already been demonstrated, but they have not yet been tried, and proven, on a large scale. There is strong evidence, however, that it would not cost the world huge amounts to undertake large-scale carbon capture and storage.
The problem is timing. The changeover of the world's vehicles to hybrid and other efficient technologies will take decades, not years. So will the changeover of power plants to carbon capture and storage. If we procrastinate, the dangers posed by climate change will confront us as we talk, debate, and plan. The world needs to start acting soon -- very soon -- if it is to head off the major threats.
All major regions of the world will need to be involved. Today's developing countries are not yet major emitters of carbon dioxide, but with economic growth they will become so. Therefore, all countries, both developed and developing, need to do their part, with rich countries helping poor countries cover the financial costs of adjustment.
Plenty of carbon dioxide will be emitted into the atmosphere as the world's climate negotiators fly to and from the Montreal meeting. Let's press our governments to make real progress when they meet; otherwise they will merely be adding to the problem.
Jeffrey Sachs is professor of economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
In a summer of intense political maneuvering, Taiwanese, whose democratic vibrancy is a constant rebuke to Beijing’s authoritarianism, delivered a powerful verdict not on China, but on their own political leaders. Two high-profile recall campaigns, driven by the ruling party against its opposition, collapsed in failure. It was a clear signal that after months of bitter confrontation, the Taiwanese public is demanding a shift from perpetual campaign mode to the hard work of governing. For Washington and other world capitals, this is more than a distant political drama. The stability of Taiwan is vital, as it serves as a key player
Yesterday’s recall and referendum votes garnered mixed results for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). All seven of the KMT lawmakers up for a recall survived the vote, and by a convincing margin of, on average, 35 percent agreeing versus 65 percent disagreeing. However, the referendum sponsored by the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on restarting the operation of the Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant in Pingtung County failed. Despite three times more “yes” votes than “no,” voter turnout fell short of the threshold. The nation needs energy stability, especially with the complex international security situation and significant challenges regarding
Much like the first round on July 26, Saturday’s second wave of recall elections — this time targeting seven Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers — also failed. With all 31 KMT legislators who faced recall this summer secure in their posts, the mass recall campaign has come to an end. The outcome was unsurprising. Last month’s across-the-board defeats had already dealt a heavy blow to the morale of recall advocates and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while bolstering the confidence of the KMT and its ally the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). It seemed a foregone conclusion that recalls would falter, as
The fallout from the mass recalls and the referendum on restarting the Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant continues to monopolize the news. The general consensus is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been bloodied and found wanting, and is in need of reflection and a course correction if it is to avoid electoral defeat. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has not emerged unscathed, either, but has the opportunity of making a relatively clean break. That depends on who the party on Oct. 18 picks to replace outgoing KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫). What is certain is that, with the dust settling
RSS