Challenger Angela Merkel is likely to win the most votes in German elections tomorrow, but polls show her falling short of a majority. This, coupled with the slim chance that Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder clings to power, means numerous coalitions are possible.
Here is a ranking of possible governments that Europe's biggest economy could wind up with after 62 million voters cast their ballots tomorrow:
Grand coalition: With Merkel's Christian Democratic alliance (CDU/CSU) averaging 41.6 percent in Germany's six top opinion polls, compared with Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) at 33.7 percent, the one government which every voter survey gives a majority is a marriage of the country's two biggest parties.
This seems the most likely election result despite the fact that Merkel and Schroeder both reject such an alliance. Schroeder has made it clear he would quit rather than serve in any such government.
Germany was ruled by a such a grand coalition from 1966 to 1969, but the big difference back then was that both parties wanted such a government and worked to make it a success.
Analysts predict this time round a grand coalition would be highly unstable and unlikely to pass major reforms needed to cure Germany's ailing economy.
Some predict that new elections might have to be held as early as next year if a grand coalition comes to power.
Conservative led coalition: Merkel's CDU/CSU and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) enjoyed a solid majority for months in the polls but that support has eroded in past weeks. All six polls show the CDU/CSU-FDP failing to clinch a majority with on average the surveys showing the bloc at 48.3 percent.
Given that an poll Wednesday found a surprising 33 percent of voters still undecided, Merkel's desired coalition could still win a majority -- but this has to be seen, at best, as the second most likely election result.
Leftist coalition: Schroeder and leaders of his ruling SPD and Greens partner vow they will not set up a leftist government with the new Left Party -- a merger of the former East German communists and a smaller western German protest group.
But with a few SPD chieftains like Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit touting this model, Merkel accuses the SPD and Greens of planning such a government.
Analysts, however, think it is unlikely because moderate SPD and Greens members would revolt in parliament and hinder a Red-Red-Green government majority. It could also badly erode SPD support in western Germany.
Expanded center-left coalition under Schroeder: A number of analysts including political scientist Franz Walter of the University of Goettingen predict Schroeder will seek to stay in power by adding the opposition FDP to his SPD-Greens government.
SPD chancellors have ruled with both the FDP and the Greens at different times, but there have been only a few short-lived three-party "streetlight coalition" -- so nicknamed because the parties have red, yellow and green as their trademark colors -- at regional level.
While some SPD leaders and a lower ranking Green official have openly held up this model, most of the Greens and FDP chief Guido Westerwelle have fiercely rejected it.
The problem is that the polls show no majority for Red-Yellow-Green which an average of the six polling agency results give 47.6 percent. But here again, the high number of undecided voters could make this an option tomorrow.
Minority Conservative government with Greens backing: While there has been CDU/CSU cooperation with the Greens in local politics, there has never been a full-blown alliance between the Christian Democrats and the Greens at the regional or national level in Germany.
Yet the differences between the parties are not as great in all areas as might be believed. On the economy and jobs -- which are the touchstones of this election given Germany's almost five million unemployed -- a large segment of the Greens are more pro-market than CDU/CSU moderates, who are disinclined to cut social welfare.
The Greens dread a grand coalition of Merkel's and Schroeder's parties, which would force them into the opposition in Berlin. This would complete a humiliating sweep of the party from power given that the Greens have been tossed out of office in all nine governments in Germany's Laender, the federal states, in which they served.
There is thus speculation that to prevent a grand coalition enough moderate Greens would agree to support a minority Merkel CDU/CSU-FDP government. Given that a poll this week showed Merkel short of just three votes, such a government, while unlikely, is not out of the question.
Re-election of Schroeder's SPD Greens government: The opinion polls and analysts are unanimous in saying that Schroeder's current government has no chance of reelection in its current form. The top six polls' latest results average out at 40.9 percent for the ruling coalition. A gain of nine points, even through the undecided voters, seems almost out of the question.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
As Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party won by a landslide in Sunday’s parliamentary election, it is a good time to take another look at recent developments in the Maldivian foreign policy. While Muizzu has been promoting his “Maldives First” policy, the agenda seems to have lost sight of a number of factors. Contemporary Maldivian policy serves as a stark illustration of how a blend of missteps in public posturing, populist agendas and inattentive leadership can lead to diplomatic setbacks and damage a country’s long-term foreign policy priorities. Over the past few months, Maldivian foreign policy has entangled itself in playing
A group of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers led by the party’s legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (?) are to visit Beijing for four days this week, but some have questioned the timing and purpose of the visit, which demonstrates the KMT caucus’ increasing arrogance. Fu on Wednesday last week confirmed that following an invitation by Beijing, he would lead a group of lawmakers to China from Thursday to Sunday to discuss tourism and agricultural exports, but he refused to say whether they would meet with Chinese officials. That the visit is taking place during the legislative session and in the aftermath