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Do not link Penghu with China

The Pescadores, or Penghu in Mandarin, are a group of 64 small islands with an area of 80km2 situated in the Taiwan Strait, about 40km off the west coast of Taiwan.

On Aug. 1, Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) announced a plan to open Penghu County for direct point-to-point shipping services across the Taiwan Strait on an experimental basis, starting early this month. The premier is proposing that the "small three links" now in effect in Kinmen and Matsu be extended to the Pescadores.

While it is not clear whether this new policy has the blessing of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and the Mainland Affairs Council, it is patently an imprudent idea.

The experience of the small three links at Kinmen and Matsu has been miserable. The original expectation of developing the economy of these islands simply did not pan out. Chinese tourists have been few. Taiwanese businesspeople merely use Kinmen and Matsu as convenient transit points; they do not stop there long enough to spend money. As for investment, it has been a one-way flow, as well-to-do residents of the islands poured money into the thriving real estate market on the Chinese side.

To be sure, for businesspeople who travel between Taiwan and China the small three links mean savings in travel expenses and time. This advantage pales, however, compared to the intractable problems the links have caused. Smuggling is now routine and often ignored by Taiwan's coast guard.

Where it involves cheaper daily necessities from China, little harm is done. The small three links, however, also facilitate the smuggling of illicit drugs, guns and ammunition into Taiwan, empowering criminal elements.

Another problem is the transmission of diseases from China through circumvention of health and sanitary inspections. The Financial Times has warned of a potential pandemic caused by the spread of the lethal H5N1 strain of avian flu ("How to nip the flu epidemic in the bud," Aug. 5). Taiwan's Department of Health has said there was a serious risk of avian flu breaking out in Taiwan between January and March of next year. The US Center for Disease Control has even predicted as many as 14,000 Taiwanese deaths should there be an outbreak.

Against this background, it is disconcerting to learn that on Aug. 21, the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) intercepted a Taiwanese fishing boat carrying more than 4,500 smuggled birds from China.

The question is how many smuggling boats are escaping capture by the CGA.

Even more dangerous is the smuggling of Chinese spies and PLA special forces operatives, who land on Kinmen and Matsu with falsified papers and then infiltrate Taiwan with ease.

Taiwan's military bases are notorious for their lackadaisical security measures. Taiwan's infrastructure, such as water reservoirs and the power grid, are vulnerable to sabotage. Taiwan's political and military leaders could become targets of PLA assassination squads. It is no exaggeration to say that the Trojan horse is already inside Taiwan's gate, thanks in part to the small three links.

It is incomprehensible why the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government would want to open up Penghu for another small three links, when the experience of Kinmen and Matsu has been such an utter failure.

Furthermore, there are other reasons why this will be an egregious mistake in policy. First, the Pescadores are an indispensable military bastion guarding the security of Taiwan. In 1622, the Dutch took possession of Penghu for its strategic location and then took Taiwan in 1624 in exchange for relinquishing Penghu. In June 1683, Qing Dynasty admiral Shih Lang (施琅) took Penghu in a naval battle with the Cheng forces. The next month the Cheng regime surrendered Taiwan to the Qing emperor. Once the Pescadores fall into enemy hands, it would be most difficult to defend Taiwan.

Opening up Penghu to infiltration by Chinese agents and spies will do irreparable harm to the security of both Penghu and Taiwan proper.

Second, the legal status of the Pescadores is entirely different from that of Kinmen and Matsu. The Pescadores have always been an integral part of Taiwan. In 1895, the Pescadores were ceded to Japan in perpetuity, along with the main island of Taiwan, by the Qing dynasty. In the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty, Japan renounced its title to Taiwan and the Pescadores. Kinmen and Matsu, on the other hand, have historically been China's outlying islands.

Even though these islands are now controlled by Taiwan, they are destined to be returned to China in the event of an amicable settlement between Taiwan and China, because Taiwan has no legitimate claim on Kinmen and Matsu, just as China has no valid claim on Taiwan.

In its public statements, the government has often lumped Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu together, seemingly oblivious to the important distinction in legal status between Penghu and the Chinese outlying islands. This is a dangerous practice which could lead allies such as the US and Japan to conclude that Taiwan lacks the resolve to defend Taiwan's sovereignty and may be amenable to eventual annexation by China.

Third, opening Penghu to the small three links could also accelerate the demoralization of the Taiwanese citizenry. Ever since KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Song (宋楚瑜) made their pilgrimage to Beijing, Chen can't seem to hide his eagerness to follow suit.

China is intensifying its united front tactics to divide and conquer Taiwan, undermining the authority of the government. Chinese fishing vessels have been encroaching repeatedly on the territorial waters of Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu. Although Chen has ordered a week-long "Clear Sky" campaign to chase the Chinese vessels away, the problem will recur so long as the links are in place. Implementing Penghu's links under these circumstances can further erode Taiwanese people's confidence in the government's ability to defend Taiwan's sovereignty and democracy.

Chen should order Hsieh to cease pursuing this suicidal policy. Penghu's economic problem should be solved by encouraging tourists from Japan and Okinawa, not from China, an adversary intent on devouring Taiwan.

The DPP and its administration have not clearly enunciated a vision for Taiwan's future. Public statements have often been inconsistent and contradictory. However, its deeds in dealing with China, whether by action or inaction, may be characterized as unilateral, incremental concessions to China. This policy has steadily changed the status quo in China's favor. A point of no return will soon be reached, where preserving Taiwan's de facto independence will no longer be a viable option.

Don't link Penghu with China.

Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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