An energy policy is not a simple aggregate of scientific issues. Rather, it is a distributed social issue, and it is necessary to thoroughly analyze many diverse and changeable aspects of society to truly understand how we live, and how to resolve systemic social issues.
In his book Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, David Goodstein says that the oil crisis will not occur when the last drop of oil has been pumped out of the ground, but would begin when the rate at which new oil wells are opened up diminishes. Try to imagine what life will be like in Taiwan in a global oil crisis.
First, we are currently relying on imports for the lion's share of our energy. If we were to become isolated from the rest of the world, we will be reduced to relying on solar energy, wind power, geothermal heat and wood. This means that in addition to more actively saving energy and developing renewable energy sources, we must protect local energy sources.
Furthermore, many of our foods are imported, which means that when a lack of fuel for transportation occurs, we will not be able to eat US flour or Australian beef, and we will have to look to what's available locally for our food and clothing. We must consider how to protect this environment, which in future will be the only source for our livelihood.
Taiwan is an island, and the sea, the mountains and the forests will in future become our only hope for life. Simply put, if Taiwan's population can only rely on these resources, it cannot support too many people. We all know the story of the frog in a jar of water. When the heat outside increases slowly, the frog eventually dies without noticing the rising temperature until it is too late. If the heat increases rapidly, however, the frog will leap out of the jar, and will survive. Thus, once we understand that an oil crisis is inevitable, shouldn't the government and academics raise the alarm and call for a response?
There are several important ways to raise the alarm. The most effective is to increase the price of water, electricity and oil. This will have three effects. The first is inflation, but that can be dealt with if we all avoid unnecessary consumption. The second will be a reduction in waste. When these energy sources are no longer readily available, higher prices will reduce consumption, demand will fall, and people will seek substitutes or change their behavior to adapt to the scarcity. The third effect will be to bear out the adage that necessity is the mother of invention. As a result of our needs, we will work to develop new technologies and methods to increase efficiency. The government can allocate greater budgetary resources to encourage relevant research.
Solar energy is in fact an energy resource that is derived from atomic fusion. Current nuclear plants generate electricity as a result of the fission of heavy atoms, which carries the risk of creating deadly radiation. If we could have a high level of control over nuclear energy production, we could gradually reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, while also providing a stable source of energy.
Italy has banned new nuclear power plants, and instead imports electricity generated in nuclear reactors from France. But the question is where Taiwan can purchase electricity. Does it make sense to constrain ourselves to building a non-nuclear homeland? This is an issue that requires public debate.
Modern civilization was founded on revolutions in the use of energy. Serious inflation and other social problems arise whenever there is an imbalance between the demand and supply of oil. Governmental inaction will only speed up Taiwan's decline, while radical action will teach the public to face the oil crisis and possibly find a solution.
Chen Chang-po is a research fellow in the Biodiversity Center at Academia Sinica.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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