Taiwanese should pay more attention to China's economy.
China's government faces pressures and small, but significant, challenges to its legitimacy in the form of discontent with rural corruption and unemployment. This discontent is manifested in the seldom-publicized, but ever more frequent protests in the smaller rural towns and in the rustbelt cities of the northeast.
The severity and intensity of these challenges are, however, kept in check by China's strong economic growth, which helps to pacify and ameliorate the situation of those who are dissatisfied with the status quo. The Communist government also resorts to nationalist propaganda and sentiment to attract attention away from dissatisfaction and protests. This nationalist propaganda often takes the form of criticism of former enemy Japan and its seemingly unapologetic stand towards its World War II atrocities in China.
Another nationalist propaganda tool is the call for the unification (or prevention of separation) of Taiwan with the motherland. A sense of national pride and unity helps to garner support of the government despite misgivings the public might have with the status quo. Most Chinese people have come to view the Taiwan issue as one of national pride and integrity.
So there seems to be two tools that the communist government has at its disposal to quell feelings of dissent. These are high economic growth and nationalist propaganda.
At this time the government does not resort much to the nationalist propaganda tool thanks to the strong economic growth taking place, but if that growth falters and the communists find themselves with insurmountable pressure they will resort to perhaps an extreme act of nationalism in order to gain back legitimacy. One very convenient nationalist act would be unification with Taiwan by force. This action would of course be a risky one in light of the likely involvement of Taiwan's security guarantor, the US.
Nevertheless, if the communists ever begin losing legitimacy they might be willing to make that patriotic gamble.
Such a gamble has been taken before by a government in a situation similar to the one described. In 1982, the then military government of Argentina, faced with economic problems and consequent popular discontent, resorted to the patriotic, popular, surprising and risky move of invading Argentina's equivalent of Taiwan, the Falkland Islands (the Falkland Islands, like Taiwan, has an independent government and is an island located near a continent and a country that has historical claims to it as its own). The military government, however, lost the gamble because of the eventual national humiliation from defeat at the hands of the Falklands' security guarantor, the UK. The military government of Argentina was later overthrown in a wave of popular discontent.
Today's China, like the earlier military government of Argentina, has a unique territorial issue which can be used to its advantage in an effort to strengthen national legitimacy in the event of political turmoil.
Beijing is currently not willing to sacrifice high economic growth to patriotic adventurism. If, however, China finds itself in economic, and thus political, difficulties then the Taiwanese should start to worry and tone down any pro-independence provocation. Because at that point, China will be more willing to take the patriotic Falkland-Islands style option to ensure the Communist's legitimacy.
Marcos Daniel Torres
Kaohsiung
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