Yet China's provocations are also flexible depending on the issue of the moment. Only recently have we begun to hear of any matter that is provocative to Taiwan. That Taiwan says it is not a province of China is provocative, but for China to say Taiwan is a province of China is not. This is a holdover from Taiwan's authoritarian days, of course, but today provocations are up for grabs.
Like any long-standing issue, the cross-strait issue has a vocabulary all of its own, as in the case of the Israeli-Palestinian war. Using words in an unfamiliar way can do harm to one side and help the other. For example, saying that the US does not support Taiwan's entrance into international organizations that require statehood, is an unspoken policy in deference to the Taiwan Relations Act. Once uttered in the Taiwan Policy Review in 1994, it weakened Taiwan's efforts and helped China.
The US government does not support independence for Taiwan, but it supports self-determination. Once uttered, however, this continues to be used by the US to placate China. It may not be a change in policy, but it helps China and hurts Taiwan. In stating that Taiwan does not have sovereignty, as compared to the long-standing but unspoken policy that Taiwan's sovereignty is yet to be decided, had the same result. I've mentioned US examples, but both China and Taiwan are not inexperienced in this verbal jujitsu.
Taiwan's legislative elections will soon take place. Most experts see a close call, with possibly a slight pan-green majority. Most also see a decline in pan-blue votes, but there is little consensus on where these latter seats will go. It is likely, based on this rather skim speculation, that getting laws passed may be easier than the recent past, but each issue will take considerable debate and compromise, constitutional amendments included.
The Chen administration will have its work cut out for itself. Even within the ruling party, or parties, the struggle for consensus on any issue, and especially for sovereignty and security issues, will be intense and difficult. If US policy toward Taiwan in the second Bush administration places its emphasis on urging constraint on cross-strait issues, it may well find that if wisely pursued, Chen may welcome it. For this is what is needed: good communications, a balanced handling of provocations, a wise use of the special vocabulary and the avoidance of surprises.
Nat Bellocchi is the former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group.The views expressed in this article are his own.
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