During the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee plenary meeting this month we can expect to witness a power struggle between President Hu Jintao (
Despite being both president and party chairman, Hu's power is power in name only. The real power is still wielded by the 78-year-old Jiang.
Hu, in an attempt to secure his own authority, has been concentrating on reform, curtailing corruption and greedy officials, economic development and advocating a "peaceful rise" for China. This, he hopes, will win him the support of intellectuals, as well as the more progressive elements within the party.
Jiang, in response to Hu's rising popularity, is playing the Taiwan card, concentrating on preventing Taiwanese indepen-dence, which for him means a military build-up. He is drumming up the support of the military by emphasizing the need to take an active role in the Taiwan Strait. This strategy forms the political background to reports in Beijing-friendly Hong Kong media saying that Jiang envisages a conclusion to the Taiwan question by 2020.
Hu's counter-strategy to win the backing of the military, is to lay his own Taiwan card on the table. His rhetoric toward Taiwan is getting tougher and he also gave his support to the Unification Law. This is all geared to leveling the playing field with Jiang.
Their tougher stances on the Taiwan issue are directly related to the plenary meeting. It has more to do with their own power struggle than with Taiwan itself. It is just for show and should not be taken as indicative of major changes in their Taiwan strategy.
Many people in Taiwan, unaware of the political background behind the power struggles in Beijing, are concerned about the strong words being bandied about. There are also some, in particular those who favor unification, who are acting as cheerleaders for Beijing, adding fuel to the fire of the tough rhetoric and putting obstacles in the way of progress toward a new constitution and the rectification of Taiwan's name.
In actual fact, Beijing has its hands tied on taking military action against Taiwan, in terms of both internal factors and the current international climate. Jiang and Hu's political lies have not only taken in their own citizens, but also some Taiwanese. If we can just see through these, strengthen our own sense of identity and drive toward independence and autonomy, Beijing will have to give up its fantasy and Taiwan will be in a safer position for it.
Cao Chang-ching is a freelance journalist based in the US.
TRANSLATED BY PAUL COOPER
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