Canadian voters are set to abandon 25 years of political stability and elect a parliament so divided that the new government will be an uneasy alliance given little chance of lasting more than 18 months.
Opinion polls ahead of the June 28 election show the ruling Liberals of Prime Minister Paul Martin are level with the opposition Conservatives led by Stephen Harper, but that neither side will get anywhere near a majority of the 308 seats in parliament.
That leaves two probable options -- a minority Liberal government supported by the left-leaning New Democrats, or a minority Conservative government backed by the separatist Bloc Quebecois, the federal offshoot of a party dedicated to the break-up of Canada.
If the government lost a confidence vote in parliament or failed to push through key legislation such as a budget, this could trigger a new election -- or it could lead to the extraordinary situation of the other leading party getting a chance to govern.
Whatever the political leaning of the new government, past experience suggests the alliances keeping it in power could be informal ones, going forward on a vote-by-vote basis and avoiding contentious policy issues likely to trigger defeat.
"This is not a recipe for long-lived government. We'll be having another election within 18 months," said one veteran Liberal official.
Canada has no history of formal coalitions in peacetime. No minority administration since World War Two has lasted more than two years, and the last minority government, that of Conservative Joe Clark, collapsed in 1980 after nine months when parliament voted against his budget. Clark had tried to govern without support from a minor party.
Paying a price
The Liberals would pay a price for working with the New Democrats, who are likely to push for steep increases in social spending and resist the traditional Liberal drive to use surplus government revenue to pay down debt.
"There would be almost a vote-by-vote agreement, and the country would be going back to the polls within the next 18 months to two years," said Professor James Laxer of York University, an expert on the New Democrats.
If Martin comes within a few seats of Harper, constitutional precedent suggests he might be given the first stab at forming a government. But if he is further behind or if he cannot or does not want to do so, the Conservatives would give it a shot.
Their only realistic option would be to seek support from the leftist Bloc Quebecois, which wants independence for French-speaking Quebec and has little interest in a stable federal government.
The Conservatives' predominantly western support base detests the Bloc Quebecois and the two parties disagree on virtually everything except the need to trim Ottawa's power, which suggests the Conservatives would have great difficulty pushing through plans to slash taxes.
"I don't see a Bloc/Conservative (alliance) lasting," said politics professor Patrick Smith of Simon Fraser University.
Both parties say only that they would examine the possibility of cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis.
"It may be that they (the Conservatives) would have to structure a legislative agenda item-by-item and ask `Where do we find a majority?' on each item," said politics professor Paul Thomas from the University of Manitoba.
In the past, partners in a minority government have tried to avoid a quick collapse so as not to anger voters.
"There has been generally a disinclination on the part of other parties to immediately force another election so we've tended to have a couple of years ... with governing that's much more sensitive to the kind of nuances of shifting of public opinion," said Smith.
The last time two parties worked together in a minority situation was when the New Democrats supported a Liberal government from 1972 to 1974, and few politicians today have memories of that era.
"Keeping this kind of political union afloat is exceedingly difficult. You need to be incredibly subtle and skilled to keep the various egos in balance, and Martin's people don't have that delicate touch at all," said the veteran Liberal official.
Uncertain prospects
The prospects for the Conservatives are just as uncertain. Many of the party's legislators are from western Canada and were elected a decade ago as part of a protest against the traditional dominance by eastern Canada's political elite.
"The Conservatives are a party unfamiliar with the discipline of power ... I don't think they have a high level of understanding and acceptance of the principle that organized, disciplined parties are a central feature of government," said Thomas.
The New Democrats, who have never governed Canada federally, might have the most to gain.
Terry Grier, a New Democrat member of parliament during the 1972-74 government, said the party used its influence over the Liberals to achieve significant victories such as a pension increase and the creation of oil firm Petro-Canada to give Canada some say over energy policy.
"If the 1972 result is replicated we'd be crazy not to try to exploit what leverage we have and use whatever influence we have, judiciously and responsibly," he said.
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