Nepal's King Gyanendra made a dramatic climbdown last week by reinstating the prime minister he sacked two years ago, and may have given the country a glimmer of hope as it battles a growing Maoist insurgency.
A three-way tussle for power between the king, political
parties and the Maoists has brought the desperately poor Himalayan kingdom close to collapse in the last two years.
But the reappointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba offers some hope of an end to the
row between the monarch and mainstream political parties, and of a new beginning in talks with the Maoists.
The 57-year-old premier is now trying to put together a multi-party government to give him a platform to negotiate with the rebels, with the king's backing.
"The king is a very proud man, and for him to reinstate
a prime minister he called incompetent two years ago, that takes a lot," said Nepali Times editor Kunda Dixit. "He must have felt he had no other options. But he has gone out on a limb, and that shows a glimmer of leadership qualities at last."
It is precisely a crisis of leadership which has brought Nepal to the brink of anarchy since the introduction of democracy in 1990.
Political parties have squabbled over power and its spoils. Corruption has grown and along with it poverty and deprivation.
A palace massacre in 2001
-- when popular King Birendra was killed by his own drunken son -- seriously undermined the image of a monarchy previously seen as almost godlike.
AUTOCRATIC MEDDLER
Birendra's brother and successor Gyanendra has proved an autocratic meddler, critics say, and his decision to dismiss Deuba set him on a collision course with the mainstream parties and sparked sustained street protests in the capital.
"Before him they used to
be god-kings," one local vendor said. "But now he is just a king. And this king is no good."
Into the vacuum have poured the Maoist rebels, who now hold sway over most of rural Nepal and whose tentacles stretch into the capital itself.
"The Maoists are absolutely everywhere," one Western diplomat said. "Every single business here in Kathmandu must have been approached by the Maoists for money."
The insurgency has cost around 10,000 lives since
1996, scared away tourists and investors and wiped out much of Nepal's shaky healthcare and education systems. Local government does not exist.
Deuba has been reappointed with instructions to hold elections by mid-April next year. It is going to be a tough task for a man whose last term ended in chaos, with parliament dissolved, contacts with the Maoists broken and a state of emergency in place.
"His challenge is much greater this time," Dixit said. "If he couldn't resolve the Maoist crisis then, how is he going to do it now? If he couldn't hold elections last time, how is he going to hold it in the 10-month royal deadline?"
Already the country's biggest political party, the Nepali Congress, has refused to join Deuba's government.
PEACE WITH MAOISTS
But help could come in the form of the Unified Marxist-Leninists (UML), who say they are considering offering the new premier their conditional support.
"It is very positive," the
diplomat said about Deuba's appointment. "It has unblocked the logjam. How positive it will be depends on which way the UML goes, and how much
support they are able to offer Deuba."
Peace with the Maoists is a much more difficult prospect, and the movement has already rejected Deuba's re-appointment as an "old drama which will only exacerbate the conflict."
The rebels say they want the abolition of the monarchy and the establishment of a communist republic. Their bottom line, they say, is that an elected assembly be established to draw up a new constitution --
a prospect seen as anathema to the king.
Peace talks broke down twice before when neither the government nor the Maoists showed any inclination to
compromise. Deuba could
only offer a vague promise that things would be different this time around.
"Enough is enough, war is enough, nobody is going to win, the country is going to lose," he said shortly after taking office. "To find a peaceful solution, both sides have to show flexibility, we have to accommodate their demands and they have to accommodate our demands. Let's compromise."
Deuba still has a lot to prove. The political parties will want to see if he can stand up to the king and restore the "people's sovereignty."
"It is up to the king to what extent he is prepared to cede
his authority and power," said Narahari Achariya, a leading member of the Nepali Congress and a former negotiator with the rebels. "That will determine the success or failure of Deuba, both in tackling the street protests and in dealing with the Maoists."
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
As Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party won by a landslide in Sunday’s parliamentary election, it is a good time to take another look at recent developments in the Maldivian foreign policy. While Muizzu has been promoting his “Maldives First” policy, the agenda seems to have lost sight of a number of factors. Contemporary Maldivian policy serves as a stark illustration of how a blend of missteps in public posturing, populist agendas and inattentive leadership can lead to diplomatic setbacks and damage a country’s long-term foreign policy priorities. Over the past few months, Maldivian foreign policy has entangled itself in playing
A group of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers led by the party’s legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (?) are to visit Beijing for four days this week, but some have questioned the timing and purpose of the visit, which demonstrates the KMT caucus’ increasing arrogance. Fu on Wednesday last week confirmed that following an invitation by Beijing, he would lead a group of lawmakers to China from Thursday to Sunday to discuss tourism and agricultural exports, but he refused to say whether they would meet with Chinese officials. That the visit is taking place during the legislative session and in the aftermath