Lien Chan (連戰) remarked recently that when and if he is elected president, he will resign as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman. The statement set off a new round of speculation about whether Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) or Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-ping (王金平) would succeed as the new chairman.
Actually, this was not the first time that the topic had been brought up. When a central Taiwan magistrate agreed to support Lien after the kneeling performance by James Soong (宋楚瑜) last year, the magistrate wanted Lien to step aside for Wang immediately. At the same time, some northern KMT lawmakers wanted Ma to fill the chairman position.
The follow-up was that during the presidential campaign Ma has been leading the fight against "Taiwan independence" and the first ever referendum while Wang has been the leading voice saying "Taiwan independence is an option" and "one-country on each side of the strait" is not a problem."
These are some symptoms of the division within the KMT because Wang and Ma represent two camps and two distinct philosophies. The two forces understand that the chairmanship in the post-election period will be the most strategic position in the succession process for higher positions in the future. The two are not likely to yield to each other and the post-election power struggle will be bitter, as the KMT lacks an internal democratic mechanism in settling a dispute like this.
The struggle will be quite severe when and if Lien wins the election; chaos will be the only scenario within the KMT if Lien loses the election. The 2000 post-election power struggle, with the demonstration and riot outside the KMT headquarters as well as the manipulation of the masses to oust former Chairman Lee Teng-hui (
The People First Party (PFP) will make the picture all the more complicated, if not gruesome, even without touching upon the issue of a merger. If the pan-blue camp wins the election, it is quite easy to imagine how the two parties would compete with each other for positions and resources. In 2000, the PFP incorporated the New Party and its politicians, supporters and strategies. The New Party has proved all along how capable it is in strangling its political opponents. Every position and every bit of resources will cause a show of spoils-sharing. The common perception is that Lien is no match for Soong when it comes to political manipulation.
The way the two factions split their booty is very likely to affect Taiwan's economy. The 8 percent non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was accumulated because of political corruption before the DPP came to power and the DPP has been working hard to trim it down to lower than 5 percent. The NPL issue will unquestionably be making a comeback as a result of the harsh political reality of competition between the KMT and the PFP.
The feud between Soong and Ma will be something to watch out for as well. There is already much discussion on how Ma and his younger followers dislike Soong being Lien's running mate. The reason is actually quite simple: Ma will have to wait eight years or longer to run for president before Soong sees out his political life, if elected as vice president. Soong will certainly participate in the presidential election in 2008 after his term as vice president expires. It would be hard to imagine Mayor Ma will still be young and good-looking then.
The bigger issue, if Lien becomes president, will be how policy decisions are reached, as there are two party headquarters, two standing committees and two sets of politicians and policy agendas. It needs to be worked out in the first place whether Soong (and his PFP cohort) should be allowed to call the shots concerning important issues, as he revealed his desire earlier to serve as the "coordinator-in-chief" within the pan-blue camp.
Political observers will keep in mind the fact that there will be a legislative election at the end of the year. The electoral system of the Legislative Yuan will pit the KMT against the PFP. It happened in 2001, and it will happen again this year.
On the political calendar leading up to formal nominations for the legislative election, both pan-blue parties will have serious internal confusion, as neither the KMT nor the PFP has established democratic mechanisms in the candidate selection process. It is not a problem when they are in opposition. But the confusion and wrangling will result in political instability if the KMT and the PFP become the ruling parties after the presidential election.
For political analysts, Taiwan is a fertile ground of dynamism and uncertainty and they are excited to see eye-opening events follow one another. But please be aware, the post-election KMT power struggle will prove to be too much to stomach.
Taiwan, along with those who have a stake in the nation's political stability, will have to hold their breath for the upcoming fierce battle.
Joseph Wu is Deputy Secretary-General to the president.
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