Last October, when US Assis-tant Secretary of State James Kelly visited Pyongyang for talks regarding the elimination of North Korea's nuclear arms threat, his hosts revealed that they had not ceased developing nuclear arms as was earlier claimed. The world was shocked as the North Korean nuclear threat once again became a hot issue. The threat remains to this day. The six-nation talks that began in Beijing on Wednesday are yet another international effort to resolve the issue.
In its diplomatic dealings, Pyongyang often changes its mind and is difficult to understand. It is true that this is the result of years of animosity, suspicion and jealousy, but the fundamental reason is that North Korea feels insecure, especially when the US is concerned.
During the first nuclear-arms crisis that broke out in 1993, Washington and Pyongyang signed an agreement the following year, thus temporarily resolving the dispute. According to that agreement, North Korea was to get two new nuclear plants, the US was to provide 544,500 tonnes of crude oil each year up to the completion of the nuclear power plants and the two were to establish diplomatic relations some time in future. However, the power plants being built by the Korean Peninsula Energy Devel-opment Organization are only partially built. It will be impossible to complete them as scheduled. Not only that, but the US supply of crude oil is often delayed.
North Korea's most important goal is the normalization of diplomatic relations with the US, but this seems elusive as Pyongyang has been posturing to display its deep dissatisfaction with the US.
North Korea's main reason for participating in the six-nation talks is that external factors have left it with no other recourse. It has to mend relations with other countries, because if it doesn't, the Kim Jong-il regime will be unable to remain in power. The US invasion of Iraq served as a warning to North Korea and gave it reason to consider whether to stop before going too far. What's more, China's and Russia's positions on the goal of a nuclear-weapons-free Korean Peninsula have recently become more attuned to that of the US, Japan and South Korea. This has seriously restricted Pyongyang's room for maneuver.
The six nations will not be able to quickly resolve the issue. The main dispute concerns US requests that North Korea first must freeze all nuclear arms development plans, allow staff from the UN International Atomic Energy Agency to return to continue their inspection work and, finally, that North Korea must re-join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Only by meeting these demands will North Korea have the chance to obtain American economic aid and improve its relationship with Washington.
On the eve of the talks, North Korea once again repeated its call for the US to first put an end to its hostile policies, sign an agreement of mutual non-aggression and provide economic aid and diplomatic recognition. Before talks began, the question of who would be the first to give way turned into a seesaw battle between the two sides -- no wonder the Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Alexan-der Losyukov said that he did not have any expectations regarding the outcome of the talks.
The stand-off on the Korean Peninsula has been going on for over half a century, and it has never been easy to push the international order centered around the two Koreas towards stability. North Korea's willingness to participate in six-nation rather than three-nation talks is an improvement.
The North Korean decision in fact has its advantages. Russia accepted an invitation to participate and has made it clear that it will not allow the US to take up arms against North Korean. China takes the same position, thus dissolving most of the pressure applied by the US, Japan and South Korea. In short, the US, Japan and South Korea will still stand together during the meet-ing, matched by China, Russia and North Korea. The six-nation talks will therefore be a drawn-out battle using will power and words as weapons.
Given these developments, the first thing of note is that since the consensus of the other five nations is to make the Korean Peninsula a nuclear-arms-free zone, everyone is still focusing on the questions of how to get North Korea to accept such an arrangement, and what North Korea should be given before enough is enough.
The second thing that stands out is that China has already gained the initiative by bringing the six nations together, and therefore it has great influence over the progress of the talks. Beijing has strengthened its right to speak up on the Korean Peninsula issue and related matters.
Close Chinese interaction with neighboring countries, in particular Chinese intervention in mat-ters concerning the Korean Peninsula, and improving ties with the US are the things that will decide the success of the talks. Whether or not the talks will reach a quick conclusion, Beijing will emerge a winner.
The third thing to keep in mind is that Taiwan is not far from the Korean Peninsula. Though not a party to the talks, there is always room for Taipei to express its opinions and concerns.
What is the attitude of Taiwan's government towards such a meeting? What are its expectations? What are the plans of the country's diplomats on how to define Tai-wan's position in the constantly changing international reality, or on how to respond quickly to these changes?
Have they even thought about this? If not, Taiwan will become the only silent and marginalized party in this crisis, even though we are located so close to the two Koreas.
Lee Ming is professor and chair of department of diplomacy at National Chengchi University.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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